天然气消费结构多目标优化分配模型  

An multi-objective optimal allocation model for regional natural gas consumption structure: A case study of Beijing

作　　者：闫庆友[1] 秦超[1] Yan Qingyou;Qin Chao(Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy Power and Low-Carbon Development Research//North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室·华北电力大学

出　　处：《天然气工业》2019年第6期156-164,共9页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2017XS105);国家留学基金项目(编号:201806730054);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(编号:2018BJ0664);高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(编号:2018BJ0249)

摘　　要：近年来冬季供暖期天然气消费需求持续旺盛,供需形势较为严峻,天然气紧缺又造成燃气机组(电网重要的调峰电源)的调峰能力无法有效发挥,严重制约了风电消纳能力。如何在冬季天然气供应紧张时期,考虑天然气的各类用途,实现天然气的合理分配,成为值得研究的重要课题。为此,引入粒子群多目标优化理论,充分考虑供给侧风电消纳与需求侧天然气负荷,综合设计了天然气供应收入最大化、供给侧风电消纳量最大化与天然气供应不确定性最小化3个目标函数,结合效用理论构建了考虑供应不确定性和调峰能力约束的天然气消费结构多目标优化分配模型,并以北京市城六区(东城区、西城区、朝阳区、海淀区、丰台区和石景山区)为例进行了模拟优化。研究结果表明:①天然气定价宜同时考虑社会效用和用户效用;②燃气机组调峰所带来的风电消纳效益受机组基本负荷利用小时数、燃气发电用气量以及供热期等因素的影响,从而验证了天然气消费结构的优化效果;③上述城六区应在原有天然气消费结构的基础上,小幅度增加发电、供热用气比例,保持商业及其他用气消费量稳定,大幅度缩减工业及天然气汽车用气量,以尽量满足居民用气量增加的需求。结论认为:北京市城六区优化后的天然气消费结构在满足各方天然气消费需求的同时,增加了总收入,提升了燃气机组调峰消纳风电的能力,证明该多目标优化分配模型能够为区域天然气消费结构优化调整提供理论和技术支撑。Natural gas is being increasingly applied to power generation, heating and residential life because of its cleanliness, and gasfired units have been an important peak shaving power for national power grids. However, in recent years, the problem of "gas shortage" has severely restricted the peaking capacity of gas-fired units and the wind power accommodation during the heating period. How to take into account all kinds of possible usages of natural gas so as to achieve the rational distribution of natural gas especially when the tight supply of natural gas occurs in winter is worth studying. In view of this, based on the particle swarm multi-objective optimization theory, we fully considered both the wind power accommodation in supply side and the natural gas load in demand side, and set three goals including maximizing the cost of natural gas and the quantity of wind power curtailment, minimizing the uncertainty of natural gas supply. Then, combining with the utility theory, we calculated the social utility and user utility resulting from natural gas consumption, and built a natural gas consumption structure multi-objective optimal allocation model considering supply uncertainty and peaking capacity constraint. Taking Beijing (including Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai and Shijingshan districts) as an example, we conducted an empirical analysis and obtained the optimized gas ratios of different kinds of users including natural gas generation, heating, industrial, commercial, residential, and natural gas vehicles. The following findings were obtained. First, natural gas pricing should consider both social utility and user utility. Second, the optimized natural gas consumption structure would satisfy the demand of various types of users, increase the gross income and improve the wind power accommodation with gas-fired units peak-shaving at the same time. Third, based upon the primary gas consumption structure, the above six districts in Beijing should increase the proportion of gas used for power gene

关 键 词：冬季 天然气消费结构 多目标优化分配 效用理论 粒子群算法 燃气机组调峰 风电消纳 北京市城六区 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]