基于分布式光伏典型日曲线的统调负荷预测方法  

A Unified Dispatch Load Forecasting Method Based on the Typical Daily Load Curve of Distributed PV Power

作　　者：李勤超 周立中 赵艳龙 万东 余畅 LI Qinchao;ZHOU Lizhong;ZHAO Yanlong;WAN Dong;YU Chang(State Grid Anji Power Supply Company,Anji Zhejiang 313300,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江省安吉县供电有限公司

出　　处：《浙江电力》2019年第6期113-117,共5页Zhejiang Electric Power

基　　金：浙江省电力有限公司集体企业科技项目(2017-HZJTKJ-09)

摘　　要：电力负荷预测是电力系统的一项重要工作,分布式光伏电源大规模接入电网后极大地增加了电网负荷预测的难度。在分布式光伏电源出力数据采集汇总困难的情况下,采用选取2个特定日的统调负荷曲线相减得到差值曲线并对其进行修正的方法,近似模拟出分布式光伏电源典型日曲线。实践证明,利用分布式光伏电源典型日曲线辅助电网统调负荷预测,能够有效提高统调负荷预测的准确率。Power load forecasting is an important task in power system.With the large-scale integration of distributed photovoltaic(PV)power into power grid,power grid load forecasting becomes increasingly difficult.It is difficult to collect data of distributed photovoltaic power output,so two daily unified dispatch load curves are selected and subtracted to conclude a difference curve and correct it to approximately simulate a typical daily curve of PV power.It is proved that grid load forecasting via typical daily curve of distributed PV power can improve unified dispatch load forecasting accuracy.

关 键 词：负荷预测 分布式光伏 差值曲线 典型日曲线 统调负荷 

分 类 号：TM715.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]