人口红利与消费不足——基于动态演化模型的实证分析  

The Demographic Dividend and Insufficient Consumption——Based on the Dynamic Evolutive Empirical Analysis

作　　者：王树[1] 朱要龙[1] 魏巍[1] WANG Shu;ZHU Yaolong;WEI Wei(Development Study School,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院

出　　处：《财经论丛》2019年第7期13-22,共10页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BJL092)

摘　　要：本文通过引入双向代际因子的四期戴蒙德模型予以数理分析,并通过面板向量自回归模型进行实证检验,采用1989~2016年面板数据研究发现,少儿抚养比与居民消费率呈显著正向关系,而老年抚养比与居民消费率则呈显著负向关系。通过面板Var模型的脉冲响应分析,发现少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民消费率的关系呈动态演化的过程,其变化符合数理模型推导的结论。最后,从人口结构红利的角度分析居民消费不足的深层次原因,并给出理论上的支持及实证检验。This article introduces the two-way factors intergenerationally to the 4 periods Diamond Model and make a mathematical analysis. We also use the panel model to conduct an empirical test. The study based on the panel data of 1989-2016 finds that the child dependency ratio has a significant negative correlation with the resident consumption rate whereas the old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive correlation with the resident consumption rate. Analysis with the Panel Var Impulse Model reveals a dynamic relationship between the young-old dependency ratio and the household consumption and the evolution is conformed to the Mathematical model. This article further analyzes the reasons for insufficient consumption from the view of demographic structure dividend and offers some theoretical support with the empirical test.

关 键 词：人口红利 消费不足 戴蒙德模型 面板向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]