上海区域碳现价和碳远期价格相关性和收敛性研究  

Study on the Correlation and Convergence of Carbon Spot Price and Carbon Forward Price in Shanghai

作　　者：李春燕 温作民[1] LI Chunyan;WEN Zuomin(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第7期19-24,102,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“国家公园生态环境监管体制改革研究”(18AGL017)

摘　　要：基于对欧洲碳排放权交易市场碳配额现货与远期的发展运行经验和我国碳交易试点运行接近5年的客观情况,文章以上海区域2016-2017年的交易数据为基础,运用皮尔森相关系数和横截面方差比对碳排放权现货价格和碳远期价格的相关性和收敛性进行研究,结果表明两者的相关系数和理论相比不是很高,可能与我国碳排放市场发展不成熟、金融产品并没有普遍推行、种类单调有关,也和碳远期产品距离到期的时间远近、产品的属性以及远期市场与期货市场存在区别等有关。尽管两者价格在短期内可能存在偏离,但是在长期它们最终会趋于一致,两者存在收敛性。因此,我国应该尽快推行金融衍生产品,早日建立全国统一排放市场。Based on the development and operation experience of European carbon quota forward and spot market, as well as the objective situation of China's carbon trading pilot market running for nearly five years, the correlation and convergence of carbon emission spot price and carbon forward price are studied by using Pearson correlation coefficient and cross section variance ratio based on the trading data of Shanghai region from 2016 to 2017. The results show that the correlation coefficient of the two is not very high compared with the theory, which may be related to the immature development of China's carbon emission market, the lack of widespread implementation of financial products and monotonous types. It can also be related to the distance between carbon forward products and maturity, the properties of products and the differences between forward market and futures market. However, although the prices of the two may be deviated in the short term, they will eventually converge in the long term, and they have convergence. Therefore, China should promote financial derivatives and establish a national unified emission market as soon as possible.

关 键 词：上海区域 碳排放权现货价格 碳远期价格 相关性 收敛性 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]