基于出行方式及语义轨迹的位置预测模型  

Location Prediction Model Based on Transportation Mode and Semantic Trajectory

作　　者：章静蕾 石海龙[1] 崔莉[1] Zhang Jinglei;Shi Hailong;Cui Li(Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院计算技术研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《计算机研究与发展》2019年第7期1357-1369,共13页Journal of Computer Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61672498,61502461)~~

摘　　要：现有位置预测方法的研究多集中于对轨迹数据的挖掘和分析,而在如何通过轨迹数据中含有的信息内容以及外源数据以提高位置预测精确度方面的研究尚不深入,有很大研究空间.提出了一种挖掘语义轨迹信息并结合出行方式的未来位置预测模型,该模型首先可实现根据语义轨迹进行相似用户挖掘,并结合个人语义轨迹和相似用户位置轨迹得到频繁模式集合,最后结合2个集合对目标轨迹得到未来位置预测候选集;然后可实现对未来出行方式进行识别,同时结合历史出行方式和位置轨迹数据,建立Markov模型对未来位置进行预测得到候选集,最后结合前一部分的候选集得到最终未来位置结果.此模型不仅能结合语义轨迹挖掘相似用户的行为活动,还可同时融合出行方式的外源数据克服位置轨迹的局限性.实验验证表明:该模型能对日常生活中的轨迹位置数据进行预测并达到86%的精确度,同时在不同的频繁模式支持度下,其精确度都比未结合出行方式模型时平均高出5%,因此本模型对位置预测结果的提高具有有效性.The research of existing location prediction technologies focuses on the mining and analysis of trajectory data, but there still exists space for research that how to improve the location prediction result with mining the information contained in trajectory data and exogenous data. In this paper, we propose a new location prediction model of mining the semantic trajectory and the transportation mode. On one hand, this model firstly mines the similar users according to the semantic trajectory, then establishes the frequent pattern set combined with the individual semantic trajectory and location trajectory of similar users, and finally obtains the candidate future location prediction set;On the other hand, it recognizes the future transportation mode, then combines the history transportation mode and historical location trajectory to predict the future location set with building Markov model. Finally the prediction result will be obtained with these two candidate sets. This method not only uses the semantic trajectory to mine the behavior of similar users, but also combines the transportation mode to overcome the limitation of location trajectory. The experimental result shows that the accuracy of this model can reach 86%, and 5% higher than that of the unmatched travel model under different frequent pattern support with the daily trajectory data. Therefore, it is effective to improve the location prediction result with this model.

关 键 词：出行方式识别 频繁模式挖掘算法 语义轨迹 位置轨迹 位置预测 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]