Determination of water level design for an estuarine city  

作　　者：CHEN Baiyu LIU Guilin WANG Liping ZHANG Kuangyuan ZHANG Shuaifang 

机构地区：[1]College of Engineering, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley 94720, USA [2]College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266000, China [3]College of Mathematical Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266000, China [4]Department of Economics, Penn State University, State College 16801, USA [5]Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, USA

出　　处：《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》2019年第4期1186-1196,共11页海洋湖沼学报（英文）

基　　金：Supported by the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund "Study on the DisasterCausing Mechanism and Disaster Prevention Countermeasures of MultiSource Storm Surges"(No.U1706226);the Program of Promotion Plan for Postgraduates’Educational Quality "Paying More Attention to the Study on the Cultivation Mode of Mathematical Modeling for Engineering Postgraduates"(No.HDJG18007)

摘　　要：Based on the extreme value theory, self-affinity, and scale invariance, we studied the temporal and spatial relationship and the variation of water level and established a model of Gumbel-Pareto distribution for designed flood calculation. The model includes the previous extreme value models, the over-threshold data, and the fractal features shared by previous extreme value models. The model was simplified into a logarithmic normal distribution and a Pareto distribution for specific parameter values, and was used to calculate the designed flood values for the Shanghai Wusong Station in 100- and 1 000-year return periods. The calculated results show that the value of the designed flood height calculated in the Gumbel-Pareto distribution is between those in the Gumbel and Pearson-Ⅲ distributions. The designed flood values in the 100- and 1 000-year return periods of the model were 0.03% and 0.11% lower, respectively, than the Gumbel distribution and 0.06% and 1.54% higher, respectively, than the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution. Compared to the traditional model based solely on extreme probability, the Gumbel-Pareto distribution model could better describe the probabilistic characteristics of extreme marine elements and better use the data.Based on the extreme value theory,self-affinity,and scale invariance,we studied the temporal and spatial relationship and the variation of water level and established a model of Gumbel-Pareto distribution for designed flood calculation.The model includes the previous extreme value models,the over-threshold data,and the fractal features shared by previous extreme value models.The model was simplified into a logarithmic normal distribution and a Pareto distribution for specific parameter values,and was used to calculate the designed flood values for the Shanghai Wusong Station in 100-and 1 000-year return periods.The calculated results show that the value of the designed flood height calculated in the Gumbel-Pareto distribution is between those in the Gumbel and Pearson-III distributions.The designed flood values in the100-and 1 000-year return periods of the model were 0.0 3%and 0.11%lower,respectively,than the Gumbel distribution and 0.06%and 1.54%higher,respectively,than the Pearson-III distribution.Compared to the traditional model based solely on extreme probability,the Gumbel-Pareto distribution model could better describe the probabilistic characteristics of extreme marine elements and better use the data.

关 键 词：SELF-AFFINITY scale INVARIANCE EXTREME VALUE distribution 

分 类 号：P[天文地球]