基于FRAM-AHP法的公务航空飞行事故分析  

Analysis for the accidents of business aviation flight based on the FRAMAHP method

作　　者：高扬[1] 徐佳迪 武文涛 王岳 GAO Yang;XU Jia-di;WU Wen-tao;WANG Yue(Research Institute of Civil Aviation Safety,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Flight Technical College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学飞行技术学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2019年第3期754-760,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：民航安全能力建设专项(ASSA2017017)

摘　　要：为了有效分析公务航空飞行事故的主要原因,利用改进后的功能共振事故模型(FRAM)对公务航空飞行事故进行系统和量化分析。建立了功能共振事故模型,通过层次分析法(AHP)对功能模块上游功能输出和下游功能输入端的表型进行量化分析,根据权重来识别上下游主要的表型,从而找到功能模块间的失效连接,确定事故主要原因。利用该模型对某公务航空飞行事故进行分析,确定了导致事故的主要原因为公务机场保障能力不足、机组疏忽大意、飞行部教学训练大纲缺失、飞行部QAR译码能力不足、机务航前检查不足、机组起飞决策不当等。研究表明,FRAM-AHP法可以为公务航空飞行事故进一步分析提供技术支持。This paper is aimed at providing a systematic and effective quantitative analysis of the main causes leading to business aviation flight accidents by using the improved functional accident resonance model(hereinafter referred to as FARM).As compared with the civil transport and passenger aviation,business aviation tends to be more complicated and controversial in terms of the air crew members’management,the flight airport control and the flight environment,etc.What is more,the complexity may also involve more potential safety risks during the flight stages.It is just due to the aforementioned reasons that the FARM can make account for the contributing factors of the accidents from the point of view of the entire business aviation flight system.Thus,it is necessary for us to understand,first of all,the inherent mechanism and process of how and why the accidents may take place even in the situations when everything seems normal and regular.That is to say,it is of absolute necessity to clarify and describe each functional module in the normal working process by connecting the outputs to the inputs on the basis of its development so as to establish a functional network mode of the entire system.Just starting from the aforementioned necessity that we have made a quantitative analysis of the phenotypes of the upstream functional output and the downstream functional input terminals,and,then,try to identify and determine the main phenotypes of the upstream and downstream according to their degree extents and weights of importance through the analytic hierarchy process(hereinafter referred to as AHP).Thus,we have managed to obtain the coupling equilibrium between the phenotypes of the greatest output weighing of the upstream function and that of the downstream,where it can be found a failure connection factor among the functional modules,thereby likely to influence the functional module of the functional resonance,with its influential factors and the main causes of the accidents.Thus,it would be necessary to analyze and

关 键 词：安全系统工程 飞行安全 事故分析 功能共振事故模型(FRAM) 层次分析法(AHP) 

分 类 号：X29[环境科学与工程—环境科学]