基于RS/GIS与GM(1,1)模型的长沙市城市生态安全评估与预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Urban Ecological Security of Changsha Based on RS/GIS and GM (1, 1) Model

作　　者：艾媛巧 朱红梅[1] 谭雪兰[1] AI Yuan-qiao;ZHU Hong-mei;TAN Xue-lan(College of Resources and Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410000, China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学资源环境学院

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2019年第7期131-137,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41571168)

摘　　要：基于2009和2015年的遥感影像,借助GIS软件分析了长沙市2009~2015年城市空间扩展的主要方向,在PSR模型和熵权法的支持下分别对长沙市2007~2016年的生态安全及长沙市芙蓉区2009~2015年的生态安全进行了评价,并运用无偏GM(1,1)模型对长沙市2017~2021年的生态安全值进行了预测。结果显示:近年来,长沙市城市空间主要朝东南、西和东3个方向扩展;研究期内,长沙市与芙蓉区的生态安全值均呈曲折上升趋势;未来5年长沙市生态安全等级平稳上升并逐步进入生态安全状态;长沙市在城市建设过程中逐渐寻找到了城市发展与生态环境保护之间的平衡。Based on the remote sensing image data of 2009 and 2015,the main directions of urban spatial expansion of Changsha City from 2009~2015 were analyzed by using GIS software.With the support of PSR model and entropy weight method,the ecological security of Changsha City from 2007~2016 and the ecological security of Furong District from 2009~ 2015 were evaluated respectively.The unbiased GM(1,1) model was used to predict the ecological security value of Changsha in 2017~2021.The analysis indicats that: In recent years,the urban space of Changsha has mainly expanded in three directions: southeast,west and east.The ecological security values of both Changsha City and Furong District showed a zigzag upward trend during the research period.In the next five years,the level of ecological security in Changsha will rise steadily and enter into the state of ecological safety gradually.The balance between urban development and ecological environment protection has be gradually found in the construction process of Changsha.

关 键 词：城市空间扩展 生态安全 GM(1 1)模型 长沙市 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]