食管癌多器官转移预后分析与列线图的建立  

Prognostic factors of esophageal cancer with multiple organ metastases and a prediction nomogram

作　　者：张子凡 程志远 孟茜茜 王天骄 林寒 辛磊 张玲 王洛伟 李兆申 ZHANG Zi-fan;CHENG Zhi-yuan;MENG Qian-qian;WANG Tian-jiao;LIN Han;XIN Lei;ZHANG Ling;WANG Luo-wei;LI Zhao-shen(College of Basic Medical Sciences,Naval Medical University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]海军军医大学基础医学院,上海200433 [2]海军军医大学附属长海医院消化内科,上海200433

出　　处：《中国实用内科杂志》2019年第7期607-612,共6页Chinese Journal of Practical Internal Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨食管癌多器官转移的预后因素并建立预后预测模型。方法从2010-2015年美国国立癌症研究所建立的监测、流行病学和结果 (SEER)数据库中提取患者数据,回顾性分析食管癌多器官转移患者共388例的临床资料,采用log-rank方法分析危险因素并通过K-M法绘制生存曲线。通过Cox比例风险模型进行多变量分析,得到食管癌多器官转移预后的独立影响因素。并进一步建立预测列线图。结果患者的平均生存时间为7.3个月,1年、3年、5年的生存率分别为15.5%、1.2%、0。诊断时年龄为患者独立的预后影响因素。列线图C-index的值为0.618。结论食管癌多器官转移预后差,诊断年龄和转移器官的组合方式与患者的预后相关,预测列线图预测能力良好。Objective To investigate the prognostic factors of esophageal cancer with multiple organ metastases and establish a prognostic prediction model. Methods Patients data were extracted from the SEER database. The clinical data of 388 patients with esophageal cancer with multiple organ metastases were retrospectively analyzed. Risk factors were analyzed by log-rank method and survival curves were drawn by K-M method. Multivariate analysis was performed by Cox proportional hazard model to obtain independent prognostic factors for multi-organ metastasis of esophageal cancer. A prediction nomogram was further established.Results The mean survival time of patients in this study was 7.3 months, and the survival rates for 1-, 3-, and 5-year were 15.5%,1.2%, and 0, respectively. Age was an independent prognostic factor. The value of C-index was 0.618. Conclusion The prognosis of esophageal cancer with multiple organ metastases is poor. Age at the diagnosis and patterns of multiple organ metastases are related to the survival time of patients. The prediction nomogram provided a good prognosis prediction.

关 键 词：食管癌 肿瘤转移:SEER数据库 预后分析 列线图 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]