潍坊市耕地资源可持续利用评价及预测  

Evaluation and prediction of sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources in Weifang city

作　　者：陈波 马向平 CHEN Bo;MA Xiang-ping(College of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2019年第13期56-59,共4页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：结合DPSIR模型构建山东省潍坊市耕地资源可持续利用评价指标体系,运用多指标加权综合评价法计算2006—2016年综合评价指数,并利用GM(1,1)模型对2017—2022年潍坊市耕地资源可持续利用水平进行预测。结果表明,2006—2016年潍坊市耕地资源可持续利用水平总体呈上升趋势,但仅处于初步可持续性阶段;经预测,2017—2022年潍坊市耕地资源可持续利用水平呈稳定上升趋势,并将在2022年达到一般可持续性水平阶段。The evaluation index system of sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources in Weifang city, Shandong province, was constructed with the DPSIR model, and the comprehensive evaluation index from 2006 to 2016 was calculated with the multi index weighted comprehensive evaluation method, and the level of sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources in Weifang city in 2017 to 2022 was pretested by using the model of GM(1,1). The results showed that, the level of sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources in Weifang from 2006 to 2016 showed a rising trend in general, but only in the preliminary sustainability stage. It was predicted that the sustainable utilization level of cultivated land resources in Weifang would be steadily rising in 2017 to 2022 and would reach the level of general sustainability level in 2022.

关 键 词：耕地资源 可持续利用 评价 DPSIR模型 GM(1 1)模型 潍坊市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]