基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故致因分析  

Causes analysis of coal mine gas explosion accidents based on Bayesian network

作　　者：张宁 盛武[1] ZHANG Ning;SHENG Wu(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《工矿自动化》2019年第7期53-58,共6页Journal Of Mine Automation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71371014);安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(1808085MG212);安徽高校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2016A205)

摘　　要：针对现有煤矿事故致因分析多以单方面因素分析为主,忽略人、机、环、管4个方面各因素间的关联性和整体性,且涉及到的事故类型较泛化等问题,从人、机、环、管4个方面选取诱发煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的因素,并利用相关性分析筛选出相关性较强的变量;以GeNie为平台构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸致因贝叶斯网络模型,并采用交叉验证方法对其可靠性和准确性进行验证;通过贝叶斯网络参数学习、敏感性分析等对模型中各节点变量进行分析,计算不同条件下相关节点的条件概率分布和后验概率,提取诱发煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的关键因素。分析结果表明:通风不足会大幅提高煤层瓦斯含量超标的可能性,员工培训不到位是瓦斯漏检的主要诱因;在煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故已发生的情况下,可能性最大的诱因是瓦斯含量超标,其次是瓦斯漏检;导致煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的最关键因素是瓦斯含量超标、瓦斯漏检、顶板不稳定、法律法规不健全。Existing causes analysis of coal mine accidents is mainly based on unilateral factor, ignoring correlation and integrity of four factors of human, machine, environment and management, and the types of accidents involved are relatively generalized. In view of the above problems, factors inducing coal mine gas explosion accident are selected from four aspects of human, machine, environment and management, and correlation analysis is used to select variables with strong correlation. Bayesian network model of coal mine gas explosion causes is constructed by GeNie, and reliability and accuracy of the model are verified by cross-validation method. The parameters of each node in the model are analyzed by Bayesian network parameter learning and sensitivity analysis. The conditional probability distribution and posterior of the relevant nodes under different conditions are calculated to extract key factors inducing gas explosion accidents in coal mines. The analysis results show that insufficient ventilation will greatly increase the possibility of excessive gas content in coal seams, unqualified employee training is the main cause of gas missed inspection;in the case of coal mine gas explosion accidents has happened, the most likely cause is excessive gas content, and followed by missed gas inspection;the most critical factors leading to coal mine gas explosion accidents are excessive gas content, missed gas inspection, unstable roof, and unsound laws and regulations.

关 键 词：煤矿瓦斯爆炸 事故致因 贝叶斯网络 相关性分析 交叉验证 后验概率 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TD712.7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]