2012-2017年潍坊市恶性肿瘤发病与死亡流行病特征及变化趋势分析  

Analysis of characteristics and trend of malignant tumor incidence and mortality among residents of Weifang,2012-2017

作　　者：李宁[1] 李亮[1] 陈作森[1] 孟显峰[1] LI Ning;LI Liang;CHEN Zuo-sen;MENG Xian-feng(Department of Chronic Non-communicable Diseases Prevention and Control,Weifang Center for Disease Preventionand Control,Wei fang 261000,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制科

出　　处：《中华肿瘤防治杂志》2019年第12期821-826,共6页Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment

基　　金：潍坊市卫生计生委科研项目(wfwsjs-2018-108)

摘　　要：目的恶性肿瘤已成为严重影响居民健康的重大疾病,掌握其发病和死亡状况是开展肿瘤防治工作的基础和前提。本研究分析2012-2017年潍坊市恶性肿瘤发病、死亡特点及变化趋势,为制定肿瘤综合防治策略提供科学依据。方法收集2012-2017年潍坊市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡数据,通过计算粗发病率、粗死亡率、2000年中国人口标化发病率和标化死亡率描述发病和死亡现状,使用Joinpoint回归计算年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)和年度变化贡献率描述年度时间趋势。结果2012-2017年潍坊市恶性肿瘤标化发病率和标化死亡率分别为201.53/10万人口和109.62/10万人口,发病率和死亡率随年龄增长而增加,均在80~84岁达到峰值。总人群恶性肿瘤标化发病率(APC=-3.09%,t=1.03,P=0.36)和标化死亡率(APC=-2.34%,t=0.80,P=0.47)呈下降趋势,但差异无统计学意义。2012-2017年潍坊市总人群结直肠癌粗发病率(APC=4.28%,t=3.54,P=0.03)和粗死亡率(APC=7.44%,t=11.10,P<0.001),甲状腺癌粗发病率(APC=13.16%,t=7.40,P<0.001)和标化发病率(APC=20.93%,t=3.89,P=0.02),宫颈癌标化发病率(APC=8.44%,t=3.23,P=0.03),膀胱癌粗死亡率(APC=7.24%,t=4.38,P=0.01)呈上升趋势,差异有统计学意义;胃癌(APC=-3.63%,t=9.92,P<0.001)和食管癌(APC=-3.78%,t=4.67,P=0.02)粗发病率呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义。男性胃癌粗发病率(APC=3.18%,t=8.47,P<0.001),结直肠癌粗发病率(APC=5.62%,t=4.34,P=0.02)和粗死亡率(APC=9.48%,t=6.12,P<0.001),膀胱癌粗死亡率(APC=7.97%,t=3.60,P=0.02),前列腺癌粗发病率(APC=16.61%,t=4.36,P<0.001)呈上升趋势,差异有统计学意义;食管癌粗发病率(APC=-3.85%,t=18.37,P<0.001)呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义。女性宫颈癌标化发病率(APC=8.44%,t=3.23,P=0.03),甲状腺癌粗发病率(APC=13.09%,t=5.65,P=0.01)、标化发病率(APC=21.92%,t=3.54,P=0.02)和粗死亡率(APC=18.70%,t=2.82,P=0.04),卵巢癌粗死亡率(APC=13.26%,t=6.24,P<0.001)呈上�OBJECTIVE The malignant tumor has become one of the main diseases which is harmful to the public health.Understanding the incidence and mortality is the basis and prerequisite for prevention and control.The aims of this study were to analyze the incidence and mortality characteristics and trend of malignancies from 2012 to 2017 in Weifang city,in order to provide scientific evidence for making the comprehensive prevention and control strategy.METHODS Cancer incidence and mortality data collected from 2012 to 2017,were used to calculate the crude and agestandardized rate of incidence and mortality which calculated according to the 2000 Chinese standard population(ASR China).Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to obtain annual percentage changes(APC)and annual contribution(AC),so as to estimate the trend of incidence and mortality over the year from 2012 to 2017.RESULTS The ASR China of incidence and mortality were 201.53/100 000 and 109.62/100 000.Age-specific incidence and mortality increased along with age,and peaked among 80-84 age group.The ARS of incidence(APC=-3.09,t=1.03,P=0.36)and mortality(APC=-2.34,t=0.80,P=0.47)showed a decreasing trend which had no statistical significance.The crude incidence of colorectal cancer(APC=4.28%,t=3.54,P=0.03)and crude mortality rate(APC=7.44%,t=11.10,P<0.001)of Weifang total population from 2012 to 2017 had statistical significance.The crude incidence of thyroid cancer(APC=13.16%,t=7.40,P<0.001)and standardized incidence(APC=20.93%,t=3.89,P=0.02)had statistical significance.The standardized incidence of cervical cancer(APC=8.44%,t=3.23,P=0.03)had statistical significance.The crude mortality rate of bladder cancer(APC=7.24%,t=4.38,P=0.01)had statistical significance;the crude incidence of gastric cancer(APC=-3.63%,t=9.92,P<0.001)and esophageal cancer(APC=-3.78%,t=4.67,P=0.02)had statistical significance.Crude morbidity of male gastric cancer(APC=3.18%,t=8.47,P<0.001),colorectal cancer(APC=5.62%,t=4.34,P=0.02)and crude mortality(APC=9.48,t=6.12,P<0.001),bladder cancer

关 键 词：肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 年度变化百分比 年度变化贡献率 

分 类 号：R730.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]