用模糊综合评判法预测马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量  

Prediction of the peak occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus larvae by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

作　　者：程娴 张书平 余燕 毕守东[1] 周夏芝[2] 邹运鼎[2] 张国庆[3] 张桢 方国飞[4] 宋玉双[4] CHENG Xian;ZHANG Shuping;YU Yan;BI Shoudong;ZHOU Xiazhi;ZOU Yunding;ZHANG Guoqing;ZHANG Zhen;FANG Guofei;SONG Yushuang(School of Science,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China;School of Forestry and Landscape Architecture,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China;Forestry Bureau of Qianshan County,Anhui Province,Qianshan 246300,China;General Station of Forest Disease and Insect Pest Control of State Forestry Administration,Shenyang 110034,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学理学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽农业大学林学与园林学院,合肥230036 [3]安徽省潜山县林业局,潜山246300 [4]国家林业局森林病虫害防治总站,沈阳110034

出　　处：《植物保护》2019年第4期116-121,共6页Plant Protection

基　　金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201404410);安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(KJ2019A0215);安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(KJ2018A0160);安徽农业大学教学研究项目(2017aujyxm038)

摘　　要：为了提高马尾松毛虫一代、二代幼虫高峰期发生量预报的准确性,为有效防治马尾松毛虫提供科学依据,本文运用模糊综合评判的6个数学模型预测安徽省潜山县马尾松毛虫一代、二代幼虫高峰期的发生量,验证预报1989年、1994年、2002年和2017年一代马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量,预报结果分别为2级、4级、2级和1级,与实况级别完全吻合,预报结果准确。预报1989年、1994年、2002年和2017年二代马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量,预报结果依次是4级、5级、2级和1级。同样与实况级别全部相同。预报的准确率为100%,模糊综合评判法是一个运算简便、准确性高的预报方法。In order to improve the accuracy of prediction of the peak larval occurrence in the first and 2nd generations of Dendrolimus punctatus and to provide scientific basis for effective control of D.punctatus,six digital models based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were used to predict the occurrence of D.punctatus larvae of the first and 2nd generations.It was predicted that the grades of D.punctatus peak larvae of the first generation in 1989,1994,2002 and 2017 were grade 2,grade 4,grade 2 and grade 1,respectively.It fitted perfectly with the actual grades,suggesting that the prediction results were accurate.In addition,the grades of D.punctatus peak larvae of the 2nd generation in 1989,1994,2002 and 2017 were grade 4,grade 5,grade 2 and grade 1,respectively.It fitted perfectly with the actual grades too.The accuracy of the forecast was 100%.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is a forecasting method permitting simple operation and with high accuracy.

关 键 词：马尾松毛虫 幼虫高峰期发生量 模糊综合评判法 预报 

分 类 号：Q968.1[生物学—昆虫学]