老龄化背景下生育政策预期的宏观经济效应——基于长期消息冲击的DSGE分析  

The Macroeconomic Impacts of Birth Policy Expectation under the Background of Aging:DSGE Analysis Based on Long-Run News Shocks

作　　者：汪奕鹏 刘洋[1] 陈广汉[1] Wang Yipeng;Liu Yang;Chen Guanghan(Institute of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies, Sun Yat-sen University)

机构地区：[1]中山大学港澳珠江三角洲研究中心粤港澳发展研究院

出　　处：《经济评论》2019年第4期76-93,共18页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“新时代立足教育层面扩大中等收入群体的对策研究”(项目编号:18CJY011)的资助

摘　　要：本文将生育政策预期冲击设定为长期消息冲击,在DSGE框架下探讨老龄化背景下生育政策预期的宏观经济效应、动态特征及形成原因。研究发现:(1)生育政策预期行为的最优刻画为长期消息冲击设定。(2)预期到的生育政策冲击短期内将对消费和投资分别产生负向和正向影响,但随后分别转变为正向和负向影响。(3)长期来看,生育政策冲击将对宏观经济产生持续稳定的正向影响,但这一结果建立在人口老龄化没有更加严重的前提下。(4)生育政策预期有助于降低经济"急刹车"的可能性。上述结论为人口老龄化加深背景下我国政府制定更加有效的生育政策提供了重要的参考依据。This paper specifies birth policy expectation shocks as long-run news shocks, studies its macroeconomic impacts, dynamic characteristics and mechanism under the background of aging in a DSGE framework. It finds that: long-run news shock setting can best characterize the birth policy expectation;in the short term, expected birth policy will cause negative impact on consumption and positive impact on investment, but later these impacts will reverse;in the long term, birth policy expectation will cause consistent positive impact on macroeconomy, but the result is based on the premise that population aging does not proceed;birth policy expectation shocks are useful to reduce the possibility of economic "braking". The above conclusions provide important theoretical supports for government to make more effective birth policy under the background of aging.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 生育政策预期 长期消息冲击 DSGE 

分 类 号：E32[军事—军事理论] J14[艺术—艺术理论]