国际能源价格与我国粮食价格的不对称传导关系研究  

Study on the Asymmetric Transmission Relationship between International Energy Price and China’s Grain Price

作　　者：周金城[1,2] Huang Wilfred Zhou Jincheng;Huang Wilfred(College of Economics and Management,Hunan Institute of Technology,Yueyang,Hunan 414006;College of Business,Alfred University,Alfred,New York 14802)

机构地区：[1]湖南理工学院经济与管理学院,湖南岳阳414006 [2]美国Alfred大学商学院,纽约阿尔弗雷德14802

出　　处：《粮食科技与经济》2019年第6期21-24,共4页Food Science And Technology And Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国农产品价格的非线性动态调整及其预测研究”(14CJY056)

摘　　要：随着生物能源产量的增加,粮食和能源价格之间的联系变得更加复杂。文章使用门限自回归模型研究国际石油、生物乙醇、玉米价格与我国玉米价格之间的不对称传导关系。生物乙醇价格、我国玉米价格受到国际石油价格、国际玉米价格变动的显著影响,但是我国玉米价格对它们都没有影响。我国玉米价格对来自国际石油、生物乙醇、国际玉米价格的“负向”冲击比“正向”冲击的反应更为强烈,调控措施因此在实施时机、力度与节奏方面应该有所不同。As bioenergy production increases,the link between food and energy prices becomes more complex.In this paper, Threshold autoregressive model was used to study the asymmetric transmission relationship between international oil, bioethanol,corn prices and China's corn prices.Bioethanol price and maize price in China are significantly affected by the changes of international oil price and International Maize price,but the price of Maize in China has no effect on them.China's corn price has a stronger response to the "negative" shocks from international oil,bioethanol and corn prices than the "positive" shocks. Therefore, the timing,intensity and rhythm of the implementation of regulatory measures should be different.

关 键 词：国际原油价格 不对称传导关系 门限自回归模型 生物乙醇 玉米价格 

分 类 号：S9[农业科学—水产科学]