基于舆情传播理论的应急疏散需求演化特性研究  

A Study on Evolutionary Characteristics of Emergency Evacuation Demand Based on Public Opinion Propagation Theory

作　　者：苑虎[1] 华珺 刘浩学[1,2] 谢培 朱彤[1,2] YUAN Hu;HUA Jun;LIU Haoxue;XIE Pei;ZHU Tong(School of Automobile,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China;Key Laboratory for Automotive Transportation Safety Ensuring Technology of Ministry of Transport,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China;Road Transport Service Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510000,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车学院,西安710064 [2]长安大学汽车运输安全保障技术交通行业重点实验室,西安710064 [3]广东省道路运输事务中心,广州510000

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2019年第3期143-150,共8页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51178054);长安大学研究生科研实践项目(300103002053)资助

摘　　要：为更准确的刻画应急疏散需求演化规律、揭示演化特性,进一步准确预测应急疏散交通需求、为制定应急疏散策略提供量化支撑。分析影响疏散需求演化的因素,构建了基于舆情传播理论的应急疏散需求演化微分方程模型;从微观个体的角度,定义基于舆情传播的个体交互规则并建立多智能体模型,并运用仿真方法刻画疏散舆情在社会网络结构上的传播过程以及社会联系紧密程度、个体敏感性、初始疏散者数量及分布等因素变换条件下疏散需求演化的差异性。基于舆情传播理论的应急疏散需求演化微分方程模型刻画了应急疏散需求曲线的宏观特性,该曲线斜率呈现“小-大-小”的“S型”曲线特征;随着初始疏散者数量从100增加至500、个体平均敏感性由25%增加至100%以及平均节点度由3增加至12,疏散需求达到90%的时间分别减少了62%,57%,90%,应急疏散需求曲线的整体速率增大,此3项因素主要影响应急疏散需求曲线的整体速率,对曲线的线形影响较小,而初始疏散者的分布类型对应急疏散需求曲线的线形及疏散需求增长速率的影响均较大;个体平均敏感性和社会联系紧密程度根据取值的不同,对疏散需求演化影响的敏感性呈现明显差异。In order to accurately describe evolution rules of emergency evacuation demands and evolutionary characteristics, and to provide quantitative support for strategies of emergency evacuation based on predicted traffic demands, this study analyzes influencing factors of evolution of evacuation demand, then a differential equation model is established based on public opinion propagation theory. Rules of individual interaction are defined from microcosmic point of view, then a multi-agent model is developed. Meanwhile, simulation is used to describe the propagation process of evacuation in social network structure. Differences of evolution are analyzed considering various social connection degree, individual sensitivity, number and distribution of initial evacuees. The results show macro-characteristics of the curve of emergency evacuation demands, and the slope of the curve presents as “S” curve characteristics with a trend of small-large-small. With the number of initial evacuees increases from 100 to 500, average sensitivity of individual increases from 25% to 100%, and average node degree increases from 3 to 12, time of evacuation demand reaching 90% decreases by 62%, 57%, and 90%, respectively. The speed of the emergency evacuation demand increases. These three factors mainly affect overall speed of emergency evacuation demand, but have little influence on shape of the curve, while distribution type of the initial evacuees has great impacts on both shape of the curve and growth rate of the evacuation demand. Average sensitivity of individuals and degree of social connection show significant differences in sensitivity to the evolution of evacuation demands, depending on different values.

关 键 词：交通工程 应急疏散 疏散需求 仿真建模 舆情传播 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]