住房价格、房屋购买与中国家庭杠杆率  

Housing Prices,Housing Demand,and the Debt Ratio of Chinese Households

作　　者：周广肃 王雅琦 ZHOU Guangsu;WANG Yaqi(School of Labor and Human Resources,Renmin University of China;School of Finance,Central University of Finance)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学劳动人事学院,北京100872 [2]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081

出　　处：《金融研究》2019年第6期1-19,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心研究基金资助项目;国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目号:71703076、71603300、71850005)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据以及相匹配的城市层面的住房价格数据,从住房购买需求的角度,给出了一个近年来家庭杠杆率急剧上升的解释。利用中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据探讨了房价上涨对家庭杠杆率的作用机制以及潜在影响。结果表明,住房价格的快速上涨推动了家庭杠杆率的急剧攀升,从数量上看,房价每上涨1倍,样本期间的家庭贷款数额将会增长288. 1%,家庭杠杆率将上升39. 2%,而此部分贷款的增加主要来源于银行贷款而非私人借贷,由房价导致的家庭借贷数额和杠杆率的上升大概占到购房家庭总体借贷数额和杠杆率上升的90%左右。机制分析表明,住房价格的快速上涨刺激了家庭必需型和投资型住房需求,并提高了家庭的借贷意愿和风险偏好。分样本的探讨发现,这一效应对于非农户口家户以及有配偶和子女家户的影响更为明显。The unprecedented rise in China’s household leverage has attracted a great deal of public attention.In this paper,we examine how household borrowing responds to large movements in asset prices. The answer to this question is fundamental in macroeconomics and finance and has crucial implications for understanding how asset price shocks generate business cycle fluctuations. The literature suggests that high household leverage might lead to increased mortgage default rates and trigger an economic recession( Midrigan and Philippon,2011;Mian and Sufi,2009,2011). Another line of research has tried to explain the increase in household leverage by the rise in house prices( Hurst and Stafford,2004;Cooper,2009;Mian and Sufi,2011). These studies have documented an important collateral channel whereby an increase in the value of a self-owned house will relax the household’s financial constraints,and make the household borrow and consume more.However,the sudden increase in household leverage in China has yet to be explained. In this paper,we examine whether the collateral channel exists in China. We also propose two additional channels via which the surge in house prices may have contributed to the sudden increase in household leverage.Based on household level housing and debt information drawn from the Chinese Family Panel Studies( CFPS) for 2014 and 2016,we show that the appreciation in house prices indeed contribute to the increase in household leverage. Quantitatively,we find that a 100% increase in the price of a house leads to 288. 1% and39. 2% increases in household debt and leverage,respectively. By further splitting our sample into several subsamples,we also find that the house price movements have heterogeneous effects on household leverage.Specifically,we find that urban hukou households with spouses and children have a greater increase in household leverage than rural hukou households without spouses and children. Moreover,we find that some of the data patterns are at odds with or cannot be well explained by t

关 键 词：住房价格 杠杆率 住房需求 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F126