考虑心理距离的随机后悔最小化出行选择模型  

A Random Regret Minimization Travel Choice Model Considering Psychological Distance

作　　者：徐媛[1] 徐薇[1] 周晶[1] 卢珂[1] XU Yuan;XU Wei;ZHOU Jing;LU Ke(School of Management and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2019年第4期679-686,共8页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671087,71732003)

摘　　要：为缓解交通拥堵这一城市问题需要对居民的出行决策规则进行准确刻画.作为期望效用理论的补充,后悔理论已广泛应用于交通领域的研究.学者们提出了一系列随机后悔最小化模型,但已有模型鲜少考虑影响后悔情绪度量的心理因素.根据后悔心理学研究中的“标准理论”“后悔一致性模型”等做出基本行为假设,引入心理距离概念区分不同类型的出行方案,构建改进的考虑心理距离的随机后悔最小化交通出行选择模型,以解释心理因素会影响感知后悔情绪的现象.使用瑞士地铁SP调查数据对本文提出的改进模型与原有模型进行对比分析,结果显示,改进模型对居民出行行为机理的描述更为贴切.In order to alleviate traffic congestion, it is necessary to accurately describe residents' travel decision-making rules. As a supplement to the expected utility theory, the regret theory has been widely used in the field of transportation research. A series of random regret minimization (RRM) models have been developed, but these models rarely consider the psychological factors that may affect the measure of regret. In this paper, the basic behavior assumption is made according to the norm theory and the consistent model of regret in the psychology of regret, the concept of psychological distance is introduced to distinguish different types of travel alternatives, and improved RRM models are developed considering the psychological distance to explain the phenomenon of perceived regret being affected by psychological factors. The improved and original models are estimated using the SP data from Swiss Metro survey. The fitting results show that the improved models are more suitable for describing the mechanism of residents? travel behavior compared than the original ones.

关 键 词：出行决策规则 随机后悔最小化 离散选择模型 心理距离 模型拟合 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]