东北三省碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素研究  

Study on Decoupling Effect and Driving Factors of Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Northeast China

作　　者：王越 赵婧宇[1] 李志学[1] 刘学荣[1] 周嘉[1] WANG Yue;ZHAO Jingyu;LI Zhixue;LIU Xuerong;ZHOU Jia(School of Geography Science,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2019年第6期190-196,共7页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：哈尔滨科技局科技创新人才研究专项基金(2016RAXXJ037);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目:低碳背景下黑龙江省城市空间总体布局研究(17JYE403);黑龙江省自然科学基金:环境规制对东北地区城市碳生产率的影响及传导机制研究(D2018002)

摘　　要：文章利用Tapio模型和LMDI分解方法对东北三省的能源消费碳排放的脱钩关系和影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:2000-2015年东北三省能源消费CO2排放量表现出先增加后降低的趋势,2000-2012年,黑龙江、吉林、辽宁三省的能源消耗CO2排放量呈上升趋势,年均增长率分别为6.51%、9.00%和6.49%,2012-2015年,三省的CO2排放量开始呈下降趋势;脱钩分析得出:2000-2015年,东北三省的脱钩状态呈现波动变化趋势,2000-2012年东北三省整体呈现弱脱钩状态;2012-2015年,东北三省均表现为强脱钩状态;经济因素是东北三省各省能源消费CO2排放量增加的主要促进因素,能源强度是主要抑制因素,人口规模和能源结构对碳排放变化的影响程度较小。Tapio model and LMDI decomposition method were used to analyze the decoupling relationship and influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emissions in the Northeast China.The results showed that energy consumption of CO2 emissions of the three northeastern provinces showed a downward trend after rising first from 2000 to 2015.During 2000-2012,energy consumption of CO2 emissions of the three provinces of Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning is on the rise,with an average annual growth rate of 6.51%,9.00%and 6.49%respectively,while during 2012-2015,the CO2 emissions began to reduce.Decoupling analysis indicated that during 2000-2015,decoupling state of the three provinces showed a trend of fluctuations,from 2000 to 2012,the northeast three provinces as a whole show weak decoupling state,while from 2012 to 2015,the provinces are characterized by strong decoupling state.Economic factors are main factors to promote the consumption of energy and increase CO2 emissions in the three provinces,energy intensity is the main restraining factors,and the population size and energy structure have less impact on carbon emissions.

关 键 词：能源消费碳排放 脱钩分析 LMDI 

分 类 号：X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学]