基于目标对象检验法的多种模式强降水能力的比较  

Comparison of the Multi-Model Forecasts for Severe Precipitation Based on the Object Verification

作　　者：曲巧娜[1] 盛春岩[1] 范苏丹[1] 荣艳敏[1] QU Qiaona;SHENG Chunyan;FAN Sudan;RONG Yanmin(Shandong Meteorological Institute,Jinan 250031)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象科学研究所

出　　处：《气象》2019年第7期908-919,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：精细化集合数值天气预报平台(2011YD01106);山东省重点研发计划项目(2016GSF120017);十三五“山东现代农业气象服务保障工程”;山东省气象科学研究所开放基金课题(SDQXKF2015M07和SDQXKF2014Z02)共同资助

摘　　要：针对传统TS检验方法的不足,引入了目标对象检验方法,通过对降水落区的面积、位置、形状和强度进行匹配,可获取空间场潜在的预报信息。以欧洲中心细网格、T639、山东WRF集合模式和华东区域中尺度模式(BCSH)为例,采用强降水过程模式预报最优次数及要素箱线图统计方法,得到模式及集合预报产品的性能特征,根据环流形势及影响系统对强降水分型,结果表明:热带气旋与中低纬度系统相互作用的强降水过程模式预报效果最好,最具参考性;低涡和切变线相伴随的强降水过程效果次之,且以BCSH和山东WRF集合最大值预报效果更好,各模式对低槽系统强降水预报能力一般,对温带气旋类型强降水过程模式预报效果差的概率最大。Aiming at the poor performance of the TS verification method, object-based verification method is introduced, by which the objects in the two datasets are matched in area, position, morphology and intensity to get potential forecast information of spatial field. Taking EC_THIN,T639,ensemble forecast of WRF and BCSH for example, for the purpose of integrating the characteristics of multi-model, the optimal times about the forecast of each severe precipitation are selected and the box-and-whisker plots are used.The circulation patterns and influence systems of severe precipitation are typed. The results show that the score is the best about the forecast of heavy rainfall caused by tropical cyclone with mid-low latitude circulation. The score of low-pressure vortex and shear line of heavy rainfall processes is better, of which the best forecast of model is BCSH and EnMAX. The forecasts of 12 models for pressure trough are ordinary.When the system is extratropical cyclone with heavy rainfall, the score is the worst.

关 键 词：目标对象 数值模式 降水预报 检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]