基于GM(0,N)模型的瓦斯涌出量简易预测  

Simple Prediction of Gas.Emission Based on GM(0,N) Model

作　　者：杨文光 高艳辉 王姝 李强丽 YANG Wen-guang;GAO Yan-hui;WANG Shu;LI Qiang-li(College of Science, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Sanhe 065201, China)

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院理学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第14期324-328,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(Z2017044);国家自然科学基金项目(11702094,11801173);河北省科技计划项目(162176438);华北科技学院概率论与数理统计校级重点学科资助项目(06DV09);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(3142017109,3142017075);河北省数据科学与应用重点实验室开放课题(HBSJQ0708)

摘　　要：瓦斯涌出量具有非线性、时变与多变量等特点,对其进行准确预测具有很大的难度.在考虑初始数据的重要性基础上,对现有的GM(0,N)模型进行适当改进,得到改进的GM(0,N)模型.改进的GM(0,N)模型以一次累加生成算子(1-AGO)作为模型生成基础,没有引入导数,模型求解所得最小二乘解相对简便.结合某煤矿影响瓦斯涌出量的多因素数据,进行建模与预测,运行过程简易.与GM(0,N)模型、GM(1,N)模型比较,效果较为理想.It is very difficult to predict the gas emission accurately because it is nonlinear,time-varying and multi-variable.Considering the importance of initial data,the existing GM(0,N)model is improved to obtain an improved GM(0,N)model.The improved GM(0,N)model takes one-time accumulating generation operator(1-AGO)as the basis of model generation,without introducing derivatives,and the least square solution obtained by solving the model is relatively convenient.Combined with the multi-factor data of a coal mine affecting the amount of gas emission,modeling and prediction are carried out,and the operation process is simple.Compared with the GM(0,N)model and the GM(1,N)model,the effect is ideal.

关 键 词：瓦斯涌出量 GM(0 N) 预测 最小二乘解 GM(1 N) 

分 类 号：TD712.5[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]