苏州市结直肠癌死亡时空分布特征分析  

Analysis on spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in Suzhou city

作　　者：黄春妍[1] 陆艳[1] 王临池[1] 黄桥梁[1] 陆步来[1] 张钧[1] Huang Chunyan;Lu Yan;Wang Linchi;Huang Qiaoliang;Lu Bulai;Zhang Jun(Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Suzhou 215004,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《实用肿瘤杂志》2019年第4期362-366,共5页Journal of Practical Oncology

基　　金：江苏省卫计委预防医学科研课题(Y2015019,Y2015022);苏州市重大疾病、传染病预防和控制关键技术(研究)项目(GWZX201601);苏州市产业技术创新专项(民生科技)项目(SS201544);苏州市产业技术创新专项(应用基础研究·医药卫生)项目(SYS201581);苏州市科教兴卫项目(KJXW2016046)

摘　　要：目的探索苏州市结直肠癌死亡的时空分布特征。方法根据死因登记管理系统中2006-2016年苏州市结直肠癌死亡数据,运用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)绘制结直肠癌死亡分布地图,再应用Sa TScan软件进行时空扫描,探索其时空聚集特征。结果2006-2016年苏州市结直肠癌年均死亡率为13.54/10万,年均标化死亡率为8.95/10万,均呈现上升趋势,年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)分别为5.12%和2.02%(均P<0.05)。不同乡镇/街道结直肠癌死亡率相差较大,时空扫描发现死亡高聚集区是以观前街道(年均标化死亡率为15.31/10万)为中心,时间段为2012-2016年,辐射半径为4.14 km(RR=2.16,P<0.01)。低聚集区是以锦丰镇(年均标化死亡率为5.69/10万)和张浦镇(年均标化死亡率为5.93/10万)为中心,锦丰镇时间段为2007-2011年,辐射半径为51.15 km(RR=0.64,P<0.01);张浦镇时间段为2009-2013年,辐射半径为22.25 km(RR=0.63,P<0.01)。结论2006-2016年苏州市结直肠癌死亡率呈现上升趋势,各乡镇/街道死亡分布具有明显时间和空间聚集特征。Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in Suzhou city.Methods According to the death data of colorectal cancer in Suzhou city during 2006-2016 in the death information registration management system,the geographic information system(GIS)was used to map the death distribution of colorectal cancer,and the SaTScan software was used for tempo-spatial scanning to explore the spatiotemporal aggregation characteristics.Results The average annual crude mortality of colorectal cancer was 13.54/100 000 and average standardized mortality was 8.95/100 000 from 2006 to 2016 in Suzhou,both of which presented an upward trend.The annual percentage change(APC)was 5.12%and 2.02%,respectively(both P<0.05).The mortality of colorectal cancer varied among towns/streets.The tempo-spatial scanning showed that there were three clustered areas.A high aggregation was centered around Guanqian street(the annual standardized mortality was 15.31/100 000)from 2012 to 2016,with the radiation radius at 4.14 km(RR=2.16,P<0.01).The low aggregations were centered around Jinfeng town(the annual standardized mortality was 5.69/100 000)from 2007 to 2011,with radiation radius at 51.15 km(RR=0.64,P<0.01),and Zhangpu town(the annual standardized mortality was 5.93/100 000)from 2009 to 2013,with radiation radius at 22.25 km(RR=0.63,P<0.01).Conclusion The mortality of colorectal cancer in Suzhou city showed an upward trend during 2006-2016,and appeared spatiotemporal clustering feature among towns/streets.

关 键 词：结直肠肿瘤/流行病学 地理信息系统 时空聚类分析 死亡率 

分 类 号：R735.3[医药卫生—肿瘤]