兰-武运输通道客流分担率分析及运营建议  

Analysis on Passenger Flow Sharing Rate of Lanzhou-Wuwei Transport Corridor and Its Operation Suggestion

作　　者：巩亮[1] 李引珍[1] GONG Liang;LI Yin-zhen(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2019年第4期34-39,共6页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金(61164003,71761025);宁夏哲学社会科学基金(15NXBYJ08);兰州交通大学青年科学基金(2015047,2018019)

摘　　要：兰-武运输通道是“丝绸之路经济带”黄金段河西走廊地区的重要运输通道.科学地分析预测该运输通道的客流分担率,对于确定项目投资规模,促进各种运输方式协调发展十分必要.基于兰-武城际铁路前期研究成果和旅客出行意愿调查,选取影响旅客出行方式的5个主要因素,采用Logit模型,建立其广义费用函数,利用极大似然估计法确定模型参数,分析各运输方式的客流分担率.研究结果显示,建成后的兰-武城际客运专线将吸引大量客流,使铁路客流分担率增加16.5%,最后提出了通道内各运输方式的运营建议.Lanzhou-Wuwei transport corridor is the uppermost transport corridor in Hexi Corridor region of the golden section through the Silk Road Economic Belt.It is necessary to explore the scale of the project investment and promote the coordinated development of various transport modes by analyzing and predicting passenger flow sharing rate of Lanzhou-Wuwei intercity transport corridor scientifically.Based on the previous research results of Lanzhou-Wuwei intercity railway and the investigation of passenger travel intention,5 major factors affecting passenger’s travel mode are selected.Logit model is adopted to establish its generalized cost function,and maximum likelihood estimation method is used to determine the model parameters and analyze the passenger flow sharing rate of each transportation mode.The results show that the intercity passenger dedicated line between Lanzhou and Wuwei will attract a large number of passengers and increase the passenger flow sharing rate by 16.5%.Finally,some suggestions are put forward for the operation and development of various transportation modes in the corridor.

关 键 词：运输通道 客流分担率 LOGIT模型 广义费用函数 运营建议 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]