经济政策不确定性与异质性企业就业变动:理论与实证研究  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Heterogeneous Firms’ Employment Dynamics:A Theoretical and Empirical Research

作　　者：逯宇铎[1] 杜小飞 LU Yuduo;DU Xiaofei(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2019年第5期106-115,共10页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费重大培育专项“异质性理论视角下中国贸易强国的路径选择研究”(DUT17RW132)

摘　　要：经济政策不确定性阻碍了全球经济复苏,是导致经济衰退的重要原因。在此背景下,本文将就业变动细分为就业创造、就业破坏和就业净增长三个指标,从理论和实证两个层面考察经济政策不确定性对企业就业的影响。结果发现:经济政策不确定性一方面削弱了企业的就业创造能力,另一方面提高了企业的就业破坏程度,两方面综合作用显著抑制了企业就业净增长。进一步引入企业异质性的检验发现,国有控股的企业性质通过就业创造和就业破坏两个渠道对上述抑制效应具有正向调节作用,补贴和出口对上述抑制效应分别具有正向和负向调节作用,但仅通过就业创造一个渠道发挥作用,就业破坏渠道不明显。Economic policy uncertainty(EPU)hinders the global economic recovery and is an important cause of economic recession.In this context,this paper subdivides the employment dynamics into three indicators:employment creation,employment destruction and net employment growth,and then examines the impact of EPU on firms’employment from theoretical and empirical perspective.The results show that on the one hand,EPU weakens the firms’employment creation ability,on the other hand,EPU improves the firms’employment damage degree,and the comprehensive effect significantly inhibits the firms’net employment growth.Further study on firms’heterogeneity finds that the nature of state-owned firms has a positive adjustment effect on the above-mentioned suppression effect through employment creation and destruction,subsidy and export has respectively positive and negative adjustment effect on the above-mentioned suppression effect,but they work only through employment creation,while the channel of employment destruction is not obvious.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 企业就业 异质性 就业创造 就业破坏 就业净增长 

分 类 号：F272.92[经济管理—企业管理]