基于无失效数据失效概率多层Bayes估计的单失效数据可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Single Failure Datum Based on Multi-layer Bayes Estimation for Failure Probability of Zero-failure Datum

作　　者：王璨 董玉革 黄聿锋 丁曙光 WANG Can;DONG Yuge;HUANG Yufeng;DING Shuguang(School of Mechanical Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学机械工程学院

出　　处：《机械工程师》2019年第9期67-69,73,共4页Mechanical Engineer

基　　金：国家重点研发计划（20180808103）

摘　　要：给出单失效数据情况下似然函数的一般表达式,得出失效概率的多层Bayes估计,讨论了失效概率的变化规律。算例表明,该方法可以将无失效数据的可靠性分析方法推广到单失效数据时失效概率的估计,所得的结果较为合理。This paper proposes the general expression of likelihood function under the case of the single failure datum. The multi-layer Bayes estimation of failure probability is obtained, and its variation regulation is discussed. An example shows that the method in the paper can extend the reliability analysis method of zero failure datum to the estimation of the failure probability of single failure datum, and the results are reasonable.

关 键 词：无失效数据 单失效数据 失效概率 多层BAYES估计 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]