二重转变：新生代农民工定居意愿的发展态势及其影响因素研究——基于推拉理论的实证再检验  

Dual Transformation: The Settlement Intention of the New Generation of Migrant Workers and Its Policy Implications——Based on the Empirical Retest of the Theory of Push and Pull

作　　者：梁土坤 Liang Tukun

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院

出　　处：《河南社会科学》2019年第9期107-118,共12页Henan Social Sciences

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目“城市适应视阈下的新生代流动人口主观幸福感研究”(2018M632035);中央高校基本科研业务费探索研究基金项目“城市适应视阈下的新生代农民工主观幸福感研究”(WE1824004);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“流动人口管理和服务对策研究”(12JZD022)

摘　　要：新生代农民工定居意愿呈现"二重转变"的突出特征。其定居意愿的不确定性显著提高,并存在地区差异、性别差分、受教育程度递增等特征。而基于推拉理论的实证分析,发现相对于老生代而言,流出地因素对新生代农民工定居意愿的影响大为弱化,流入地城市相关因素对其定居意愿的影响大为增强。流出地落后的经济发展状况,流入地城市居住质量、社区治安、生活水平、政府服务等良好的发展等因素共同推动新生代农民工定居意愿的提升。高的土地拥有率、就业单位性质(稳定性低)、住房产权的低拥有率、与本地人交往频繁程度低等因素对其定居意愿产生显著的制约作用。户籍制度仍然是阻碍其定居意愿提升的主要制度性因素。此外,受教育程度和流入时间对新生代农民工定居意愿也具有显著的正向影响。The new generation of migrant workers has gradually become the main body of migrant workers.Their settlement intention will have an important impact on urban population structure, economic development,social governance and other aspects. It is also an important aspect to speed up the development of urbanization and improve its quality. Based on the theory of push and pull, this paper puts the uncertainty into the framework of the analysis, and studies the main characteristics and influencing factors of the settlement intention of the new generation of migrant workers. It found that compared with the old generation of migrant workers, the main characteristics of settlement intention of the new generation of migrant workers is its uncertainty significantly increased. At the same time, their settlement willingness has the characteristics of regional differences, gender differences and increasing education level. Based on the empirical analysis of push-pull theory, it is found that the influence of outflow factors on the settlement intention of the new generation of migrant workers is weakened, and the influence of urban related factors will be greatly enhanced. These factors promote the settlement intention of new generation of migrant workers which include the Underdeveloped economy of hometown, and high residential quality, community security, living standard, government service in urban areas.The factors such as the high land ownership rate of hometown, the nature of the employment unit(low stability),the low ownership rate of the housing property rights, and low frequency of intercourse with local people play a significant role in restricting their settlement intentions. The household registration system is still the main institutional factor that hinders their settlement willingness. In addition, the educational level and inflow time have a significant positive impact.

关 键 词：新生代农民工 定居意愿 社会适应 经济融入 推拉理论 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]