南京市环境承载力评价及其成因分析  

Evaluation of environmental carrying capacity in Nanjing City and its cause analysis

作　　者：孟菲 赵海霞[1] 牛铭杰 秦海旭 于忠华[3] 孙瑞玲[3] MENG Fei;ZHAO Hai-xia;NIU Ming-jie;QIN Hai-xu;YU Zhong-hua;SUN Rui-ling(Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;University of Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100049,China;Nanjing Research Institute of Environmental Protection,Nanjing 210013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,江苏南京210008 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]南京市环境保护科学研究院,江苏南京210013

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2019年第9期4007-4016,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFD1100101);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573250)

摘　　要：从资源、环境、生态3个维度构建指标体系,运用空间状态法测度了南京市2011~2016年环境承载力状况,并从自然条件、区域发展和管理制度3方面解析影响因素,对其成因进行具体分析.结果表明:尽管南京市2011~2016年间环境承载力状况有所好转,但全市整体仍处于超载状态,主城区超载最严重,其次是六合区、浦口区和江宁区,溧水区与高淳区相对较好.南京市环境承载状态受自然、发展和管理类等多种因素影响,水、土资源禀赋及气象等自然条件对环境承载力起到先天限制作用;人口、产业等社会经济发展因素对环境承载力进一步造成压力,且加剧环境承载状态的空间差异性;管理能力上的不足是重要的影响因素,其不断提高对超载状况则起到一定缓解作用.With the designed indicator system considering resources,environment and ecology,the environmental carrying capacity of Nanjing from 2011 to 2016 was measured using the State Space Model.The influencing factors were identified from the perspectives of natural conditions,regional development and management system with a concrete analysis.The results showed the environmental carrying capacity of Nanjing increased after 2011,but it was still overloaded on the whole;The urban area was overloaded most seriously,followed by Liuhe District,Pukou District and Jiangning District;and the overloading degree was relatively moderate in Lishui District and Gaochun District;Among various influencing factors,the natural conditions such as water and soil resources,and meteorology played an fundamental limiting role,while the population,industry and other socioeconomic factors intensified the overloading degree of environmental carrying capacity,especially its spatial differentiation.Besides,the improvement of management ability could alleviate the overloading degree.

关 键 词：环境承载力 成因分析 空间状态法 南京市 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]