超大城市对我国经济的影响有多大?基于劳动投入,TFP和工资差异的分析  

How do megacities matter in Chinese economy? Analysis based on labor force,TFP and wage differences

作　　者：邹薇[1] 杨胜寒 ZOU Wei;YANG Shenghan(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2019年第8期1991-2004,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：本文建立Rosen-Roback空间均衡模型,将总产出的增长分解为劳动投入、全要素生产率(total factor productivity,TFP)以及工资差异变化的结果,通过模型测算各城市、尤其是超大城市对我国经济的贡献度.利用285个地级及以上城市2002-2015年数据的研究表明,上海、深圳、北京、广州4座超大城市的模型贡献率排名前列、且都大于简单测算贡献率.要素分解测算表明,超大城市对全国经济的正面影响来自TFP提高和劳动投入增长,而工资差距扩大是超大城市带来的负面影响."反事实"研究的结果表明,从2002年到2015年,5座超大城市(京沪津广深)使得全国总产出增长提高了25.33%;如果5座超大城市不对全国的工资差异产生影响,那么我国的总产出还将再提高15.09%.本文研究还发现,长三角和珠三角的区域经济发展更为均衡,而京津冀地区的整体发展不够协调.鉴于之前还没有研究利用我国地级市层面的数据分析过超大城市对我国经济的影响,我们的研究填补了这一空白.根据实证研究的结果,本文提出了两点建议,其一是要进一步缩小全国平均工资与超大城市平均工资的差异,其二是要进一步推进京津冀地区协同发展.We establish a Rosen-Roback spatial equilibrium model which decomposes the total economic growth into the change of labor input,total factor productivity(TFP)and wage differences.We calculate the model-based contribution of the cities,especially megacities,to Chinese aggregate economy.By using data of 285 cities from 2002 to 2015,we find out that the model-based contribution of Shanghai,Shenzhen,Beijing and Guangzhou to aggregate growth turn out to be higher than what is simply inferred from the share in GDP.Factor decomposition shows that the positive impact of megacities on Chinese economy comes from the increase in TFP and the increase in labor input,while the megacities widen wage dispersion of the whole country,generating a negative effect on economic growth."Counterfactual"studies show that for the period 2002-2015,the top-five megacities increase the Chinese aggregate economy by 25.33%,and if the top-five did not enlarge the wage dispersion,then the aggregate economy would increase by 40.42%.Our research also shows that the overall development of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions is more balanced,while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region still have a long way to go to reach the coordinated development.Since no previous study has used city level data in China to analyze the impact of megacities on Chinese economy,our research will fill this gap.According to the empirical results,this paper puts forward two suggestions,one is to further reduce the wage dispersion in China,the second is to further coordinate the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region for more balanced development.

关 键 词：超大城市 空间均衡模型 全要素生产率 工资差异 劳动力 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]