年代际气候事件的归因及预估研究进展  

Some Progress in the Study of Interdecadal Climate Change

作　　者：袁乃明 杨庆[1] 刘健[2] 陶丽[3] 冯锦明[1] 马柱国[1,4] Yuan Naiming;Yang Qing;Liu Jian;Tao Li;Feng Jinming;Ma Zhuguo(Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候一环境重点实验室,北京100029 [2]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国基础科学》2019年第3期36-44,F0003,共10页China Basic Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600400)

摘　　要：年代际气候变化对人类生存环境具有重要的影响,会引发一系列重大灾害事件,造成严重的生命财产损失,危及人类粮食和水资源安全。因此,研究年代际气候变化的规律,预知年代际重大气候事件,是人类社会可持续发展的迫切需求。基于此,国家重点研发计划全球变化及应对重点专项项目“气候多尺度变化与年代际重大事件的归因及预估”于2016年7月正式立项。该项目旨在:(1)厘清全球气候多尺度变化的时空格局及年代际气候变化的规律;(2)揭示人类活动和多尺度气候变率对气候整体变化的作用及不同尺度气候变化的主控因子;(3)认识人类活动对年代际气候变化的调制作用,诊断年代际重大气候事件的早期信号。本文将对该项目2016~2018年取得的主要进展进行总结。Interdecadal climate change has an important impact on human living environment.It could lead to a series of major disasters,causing serious loss of life and property,and endangering the safety of human food and water resources.Therefore,it is an urgent need for sustainable development of human society to study the evolution of interdecadal climate change and predict interdecadal major events.Based on this,the National Key R & D Program of China "Global Change and Response" project "Attribution and Prediction of Multiscale Climate Change and Interdecadal Major Events" was officially launched in July 2016 (No.2016YFA0600400).The project aims to 1) clarify the temporal and spatial patterns of multiscale changes in global climate and the evolution of interdecadal climate change;2) reveal the effects of human activities and multiscale climate variability in global climate change and the dominant factors of climate change at different scales;and 3) recognize the role of human activities in interdecadal climate change and to diagnose the early signals of interdecadal major events.This paper will summarize the main progress of the project from 2016 to 2018.

关 键 词：年代际气候变化 重大事件 多尺度 预估 

分 类 号：P433[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]