基于循证医学的出生缺陷发病风险预测模型  

The predictive model of birth defect risk based on evidence-based medicine

作　　者：赵晶华 李鹭[1] 曹红艳[1] 宋春英 郭兴萍 张岩波[1] ZHAO Jing-hua;LI Lu;CAO Hong-yan;SONG Chun-ying;GUO Xing-ping;ZHANG Yan-bo(Department of Health Statistics, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China;Research Institute of Population and Family Planning Commission of Shanxi Province , Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学卫生统计教研室,太原030001 [2]山西省人口计生委科学研究所,太原030006

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2019年第9期1143-1147,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71403156)~~

摘　　要：目的在循证医学的基础上利用Rothman-Keller模型建立出生缺陷发病风险预测模型,为中国有针对性的制定干预措施提供依据。方法通过评价Meta分析的文献获得出生缺陷危险因素及相应比值比(odds ratio,OR)值,构建Rothman-Keller模型的危险评分表,再利用模拟数据构建模型,确定风险预测危险程度划分界值,并采用实际数据验证。结果通过17篇文献收集了先天畸形家族史和居住地有污染源等20个出生缺陷的主要危险因素。在山西省的实际数据中,Rothman-Keller模型筛选出的高危人群实际发病率为10.9%,并与其他组有统计学差异(χ~2=147.58,P<0.001)。除此之外, Rothman-Keller模型能将先天畸形家族史的患者100%识别到高危人群。结论通过中国出生缺陷的Meta分析文献,找出出生缺陷主要危险因素,构建风险预测模型,可用于预测出生缺陷的发病风险,帮助筛选高危人群。同时为预测其他疾病的发病风险提供了思路。Objective The Rothman-Keller model was used to establish a predictive model for the risk of birth defects on the basis of evidence-based medicine, which so as to provide the basis for pertinent interventions in China. Methods First, the odds ratio(OR) value of risk factors for birth defects was obtained by evaluating the literature of meta-analysis, and the risk score table of the Rothman-Keller model was constructed. Then the simulation data was used to build the model, the risk boundary value of risk prediction, and finally the actual data to was used for verification. Results The main risk factors for 20 birth defects were collected through 17 articles. In the actual data of Shanxi Province, the actual incidence rate of high-risk populations screened by Rothman-Keller model was 10.9%, and it was statistically different from other groups(χ~2 =147.58,P<0.001). In addition, the rothman-keller model identified all patients with a family history of birth defects as high-risk. Conclusions Through the meta-analysis literature on birth defects in China, the study find the main risk factors and construct a risk prediction model. It can be used to predict the risk of birth defects and help screen high-risk groups. At the same time, it provides ideas for predicting the risk of other diseases.

关 键 词：出生缺陷 循证医学 危险因素 风险预测模型 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]