公交候车时间容忍阈值的分布特征及影响因素  

Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Tolerance Threshold of Waiting Time

作　　者：何明卫[1] 梁洁 帅春燕 何保红[1] HE Ming-wei;LIANG Jie;SHUAI Chun-yan;HE Bao-hong(Faculty of Traffic Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650504, China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2019年第5期231-235,250,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71861017);云南省人才培养项目(KKSY201702029)National Natural Science Foundation of China(71861017);Talent Training Foundation of Yunnan Province,China(KKSY201702029)

摘　　要：公交候车时间容忍阈值反映的是出行者能够容忍的最长候车时间.研究公交候车时间容忍阈值有助于我们更好地理解出行者对候车时间的感知和态度,从而采取针对性的对策提高公交吸引力和分担率,并可以为公交运营组织提供参考.本文采用昆明市的调查数据,对候车时间容忍阈值进行了实证研究.首先,对候车时间容忍阈值的分布特征进行了统计分析,并采用秩和检验法对不同群体的候车时间容忍阈值的分布差异进行了检验.进一步,基于序次Logit模型识别了候车时间容忍阈值的影响因素,发现年龄、受教育程度、年龄和受教育程度的交互项、职业、家庭年收入、公交出行频率对候车时间容忍阈值有显著影响.The tolerance threshold of waiting time represents the maximum amount of waiting time that the individual will tolerate. A study on the tolerance threshold of waiting time could help us better understand the perceptions and attitudes of travelers toward waiting time and formulate targeted policies to raise the attraction and sharing rate of public transport. It can also provide reference for the operation organization of public transport. Using the data from Kunming, this study presents an empirical study on the tolerance threshold of waiting time. Firstly, the distribution characteristics of the tolerance threshold of waiting time are statistically analyzed. The Rank-sum test method is used to test the distribution differences of different groups. Furthermore, the influencing factors of the tolerance threshold of waiting time are identified using an ordered Logit model. The results demonstrate that age, degree of education, the interaction of age and education, occupation, household annual income, and bus travel frequency have a significant impact on the tolerance threshold of waiting time.

关 键 词：城市交通 候车时间 序次Logit模型 容忍阈值 公共交通 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]