基于模糊神经网络的无人配送体系网络风险研究  

Research on Network Risk of Unmanned Distribution System Based on Fuzzy Neural Network

作　　者：秦彤彤 张俊友 王树凤 王文鲁 Qin Tongtong;Zhang Junyou;Wang Shufeng;Wang Wenlu(College of Transportation,Shandong University of Science & Technology,Qingdao 266590;College of Earth Science & Engineering,Shandong University of Science & Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学交通学院,山东青岛266590 [2]山东科技大学地球科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《物流技术》2019年第10期61-66,共6页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：在人工配送发展的基础上,对无人配送发展的技术和场景进行了构想,根据无人配送网络潜在的风险确定风险因子,建立定量和定性的无人配送网络风险评价指标体系。首先在量化后的风险因子综合模糊评价的基础上,选择BP神经网络对无人配送网络风险进行预测和评价。然后利用青岛市某物流企业的案例验证无人配送网络模型的可行性。最后通过结果对比分析,确定某物流企业无人配送网络风险所在的风险区间为一般到较危险区间,并对风险管理提供改进意见。In this paper, based on the development the manual distribution industry, we anticipated the technology and scenario of the unmanned distribution application. Then in view of the potential risks of the unmanned distribution network, we established both qualitatively and quantitatively the risk evaluation index system. More specifically, using the BP neural network, we predicted and appraised the risks of the unmanned distribution system based on the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation of the quantified risk factors. Then in the case of a certain logistics enterprise in Qingdao, we attempted to verify the feasibility of the established model. Finally, through a comparative analysis of the results, we found the risk exposure of the unmanned distribution network of the enterprise fell in the moderate to rather dangerous range, and then gave some suggestions for the management of the risks.

关 键 词：无人配送体系 网络风险分析 模糊神经网络 风险管理 

分 类 号：F252.14[经济管理—国民经济] F224