旅客列车车票预售期设置研究  

Planning of Pre-sale Period of Passenger Train Tickets

作　　者：何南[1] 贺全志 思东琴 HE Nan;HE Quanzhi;SI Dongqin(School of Traffic & Transportation Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院

出　　处：《铁道学报》2019年第10期1-9,共9页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：大连市科技之星项目(2018RQ79)

摘　　要：在2014年底和2016年底,全国铁路客票预售期有两次重大调整,且变化幅度较大,然而对于如何设定旅客列车车票预售期缺少相关理论参考。从旅客行为(开行列车余票信息数据分析)、旅客心理(行为调查数据分析)、运输方式间竞合模式(公路运输、铁路运输、航空运输间关系)3个方面出发,运用数据调查、数据挖掘、数据分析等方法,设定旅客列车车票预售期。基于研究结果建议旅客列车车票预售期按照节假日和非节假日进行设定。非节假日期间旅客列车车票预售期设置为15 d,节假日期间旅客列车车票预售期设置为45 d。在寒暑假期间,开通学生票购票通道的同时,设置学生票预售期为45 d。On the end of 2014 and 2016, China Railway Corporation has made two considerable adjustments to the ticket pre-sale period. However, there is a lack of relevant theoretical reference on the planning of the pre-sale period of passenger train tickets. Based on data survey, data mining and data analysis, this paper planned the pre-sale period of passenger train tickets in the following three aspects. In the first place, passenger travel analysis was carried out on the basis of large number of remaining train tickets. In the second place, passenger psychoanalysis was conducted according to the travel survey data analysis. In the third place, co-opetition among transportation modes, including road, rail and air, was investigated. On the basis of the research results, the pre-sale period of passenger train tickets should be set according to holiday period and non-holiday period. The pre-sale period of passenger train tickets during non-holiday period should be set to be 15 days and that of passenger train tickets during holiday period should be set to be 45 days. During the summer or winter vacation, the pre-sale period is also 45 days for student tickets.

关 键 词：旅客列车 车票预售期 行为分析 余票信息 运输方式 

分 类 号：U293.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]