基于自然驾驶数据的高速公路出口区换道风险模型  

Lane-change Risk Model of Freeway Off-ramp Areas Based on Naturalistic Driving Data

作　　者：张兰芳[1] 王淑丽 陈程 杨旻皓 折欣[1] ZHANG Lanfang;WANG Shuli;CHEN Chmg;YANGMinhao;SHEXin(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;Flight Area Management Department, Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201202, China;Road and Bridge Design Institute, Shanghai Urban Construction Design and Research Institute, Shanghai 200125, China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]上海国际机场集团飞行管理部,上海201202 [3]上海市城市建设设计研究总院(集团)有限公司道路与桥梁设计研究院,上海200125

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第10期1446-1453,共8页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0802701)

摘　　要：依托上海自然驾驶实验数据,提取高速公路出口区的交通流特性数据和驾驶行为样本.以单向四车道高速公路出口为例,考虑不同道路交通环境和出匝换道路径因素,基于比例优势模型构建高速公路出口区换道风险模型.在该模型基础上生成换道风险图谱,解析高速公路出口区换道风险分布特征,为车流控制管理提供理论决策支持.Based on the data from Shanghai naturalistic driving study(SH-NDS), traffic flow characteristics data and driving behavior samples in freeway off-ramp areas were extracted. Illustrated by the example of 8-lane freeway off-ramp, considering the road traffic environment and exiting lane-change route for modeling purpose, a proportional odds model was adopted to fit the lane-change risk model of off-ramp areas. Based on the model, the lane-change risk graphs were drawn to visually describe the lane-change risk distribution characteristics, providing a theoretical decision support for traffic flow management.

关 键 词：自然驾驶 高速公路出口区 比例优势模型 换道风险模型 换道风险图谱 

分 类 号：U491.255[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]