基于圆弧破坏模式下边坡危险性可靠度评价  

Hazard Assessment of Slope With Circular Failure Mode Based on Reliability Theory

作　　者：詹永祥[1] 周波 姚海林[1] ZHAN Yongxiang;ZHOU Bo;YAO Hailin(State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan,Hubei 430071,China;China Gezhouba Group First Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所岩土力学与工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430071 [2]中国葛洲坝集团第一工程有限公司,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《公路工程》2019年第5期36-41,共6页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41402317,41472290);吉林省交通运输科技项目(2016-1-8);中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)(KFJ-STS-ZDTP-015,KFJ-STS-ZDTP-037),中国科学院青年创新促进会项目;湖北省杰出青年基金项目(2017CFA056)

摘　　要：以圆弧破坏模式下的边坡为研究对象,采用简化Bishop法建立极限状态方程,通过Monte-Carlo法计算不同坡高、坡角、不同强度参数组合下边坡的稳定安全系数及可靠指标;基于相对安全率理论,得到不同强度参数下边坡各级允许安全系数所对应的允许可靠指标,从而将可靠度方法与传统的安全系数法建立联系。根据不同坡体强度参数均值、标准差、变异系数下允许可靠指标与允许安全系数的相关关系,以安全系数为危险性分级基础,提出与安全系数判据对应的可靠指标及失效概率分界值,从而建立基于可靠度理论的边坡危险性评价体系。通过案例验证,采用安全系数判据与采用可靠指标判据得到的边坡危险性评价结果基本一致,说明本文提出的评价方法与标准具有一定的实用性。Taking circular failure failure mode of slope as the research object,the limit state equation is established by using the simplified Bishop method,the safety factor and reliability index of the slope combined with the different height,slope angle and intensity parameter are calculated with Monte-Carlo method. Based on the ratio of safety margin theory,all levels of allowable safety factor corresponding to allowable reliability index are get under the different strength parameters for the slopes,thus the relationship between reliability method and traditional safety coefficient method is established. According to the relationship between allowable safety factor and allowable reliability index under the different mean,standard deviation and coefficient of variation of slope body strength parameters,the division value of reliability index and failure probability corresponding safety factor are put forward based on the hazard classification of safety factor,and the slope hazard assessment system based on reliability theory is established. The results of hazard assessment are almost the same by using safety coefficient criterion and reliability index criterion through example validation,the evaluation method and standard of this paper has a certain practicality.

关 键 词：边坡工程 MONTE-CARLO法 可靠指标 安全系数 危险性评价 

分 类 号：TU311.2[建筑科学—结构工程]