西北地区居民生活碳排放现状分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of household carbon emission in northwest China

作　　者：徐丽 曲建升[1,2] 李恒吉 吴金甲[1] 张洪芬 XU Li;QU Jian-sheng;LI Heng-ji;WU Jin-jia;ZHANG Hong-fen(College of Resources and Environment,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment/Global Change Research Information Center,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州文献情报中心/全球变化研究信息中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2019年第5期1166-1175,共10页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602803)

摘　　要：我国西北地区经济发展、居民生活水平和碳排放均低于全国平均水平,随着国家政策倾斜,居民生活条件逐步改善,居民生活碳排放量提升空间较大,排放格局将受影响,这对西北地区本就脆弱的生态环境更加不利。目前有关居民碳排放的研究多集中在人类活动频繁、碳排放量大的我国东、南部地区,较少关注西北地区,但碳排放增加、环境成本加重对于欠发达地区的影响更加深远。其次,研究者关注居民碳排放预测时,通常着眼于数量预测,忽视了空间格局预测,不利于区域间协同发展。基于1997—2016年西北五省居民能源消耗和消费支出数据,首先利用直接系数法和投入产出法测算了1997—2016年西北地区居民生活碳排放,对其现状进行分析;第二,基于标准差椭圆和ARIMA模型从数量和空间格局上对2017—2021年西北居民生活碳排放进行预测。结果表明:1997—2016年,西北居民生活碳排放呈先缓慢后快速的上升趋势。直接碳排放稳定在0.3~0.4×10^8 t;间接碳排放达到2.38×10^8 t;空间分布总体稳定,呈西北—东南分布,移动趋势为西北—东南—西北,标准差椭圆中心在(99.07°E,38.19°N)附近移动。2017—2021年,直接碳排放达到0.543×10^8t;间接碳排放为3.631×10^8 t;主体区域沿X轴发散,Y轴收敛,旋转轴变化小,随着西部大开发和脱贫的推进,新疆排放量次于陕西,增速较快,推动碳排放主体区域向西北移动。旨在为实现西北地区人口、消费、环境协调发展、引导居民树立低碳消费的价值理念建言献策。The economic development, living standard of residents and carbon emissions in Northwest China are lower than the national average.However,with the favorable policies the economic development is being improved and the household living standard is gradually raised up which will lead to an increase of the residents living carbon emissions,and the emission pattern will also be affected.This is detrimental to the fragile ecological environment of the Northwest China.At present,most of the researches on residents’ carbon emissions are focused on the eastern and southern regions of China where there are frequent and significant human activities and high carbon emissions,and less attention has been paid to the northwest region,but the increase of carbon emissions and the increase of environmental costs have a more far-reaching impact on the less developed areas.In addition,when researchers pay attention to the prediction of residents’ carbon emissions,they usually focus on the quantitative prediction and ignore the spatial pattern prediction,which is not conducive to the coordinated development between regions.Based on the data of energy consumption and consumption expenditure in the five provinces (regions) of Northwest China,including Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang from 1997 to 2016,this paper firstly used the direct coefficient method to measure the residents’ direct carbon emissions,and the input-output method to calculate the indirect carbon emissions of the residents and analyzes the present situation of residents’ carbon emissions in the northwest region.Secondly,based on standard deviation ellipse and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,the carbon emissions of residents in Northwest China were predicted in terms of quantity and spatial pattern from 2017 to 2021.Major results are listed as follows: From 1997 to 2016,household carbon emissions in Northwest China showed a rising trend with an initial slow pace followed by a quick pace.The direct carbon emissions were stabilized in the

关 键 词：西北地区 居民生活碳排放 空间格局 标准差椭圆 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]