基于LMDI模型的三江源地区交通碳排放影响因素分析  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Transportation Carbon Emission in Sanjiangyuan Area Based on LMDI Model

作　　者：李想 吉敏全[1] LI Xiang;JI Minquan(Qinghai University,Xining,810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2019年第20期246-250,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于生态安全的青海三江源地区低碳交通体系构建研究”(KO21422)

摘　　要：运用IPCC碳排放测算方法,通过"自下而上"的交通碳排放计算方式,测算2008-2017年三江源地区交通碳排放总量。采用LMDI法,从能源结构效应、能源强度效应、经济产出效应、人口规模效应等对三江源地区交通碳排放进行因素分析,表明从平均贡献率来看经济产出效应最为显著,从变化趋势来看能源结构效应已逐渐替代人口规模效应成为影响三江源地区交通碳排放的主要因素。This paper calculates the total amount of traffic carbon emissions in Sanjiangyuan area from 2008 to 2017 by using the method of "bottom-up" traffic carbon emission calculation provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). Then the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is used to analyze the factors affecting traffic carbon emissions in Sanjiangyuan area from four aspects:energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, economic output effect and population scale effect. The results show that the economic output effect is the most significant in terms of average contribution rate, and the energy structure effect has gradually replaced the population scale effect to influence traffic carbon in Sanjiangyuan area.

关 键 词：碳排放 三江源 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]