区域可持续发展能力的能值与耦合分析模型构建  

Construction of an emergy and exergy coupling model for the analysis of regional sustainable development capability

作　　者：樊新刚 仲俊涛 杨美玲[4] 文琦[4] 马振宁[4] 米文宝[4] FAN Xingang;ZHONG Juntao;YANG Meiling;WEN Qi;MA Zhenning;MI Wenbao(Research Center for Western Development,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;School of Economics and Management,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;School of Geography Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810016,China;School of Resources and Environment,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学西部发展研究中心,银川750021 [2]宁夏大学经济管理学院,银川750021 [3]青海师范大学地理科学学院,西宁810016 [4]宁夏大学资源环境学院,银川750021

出　　处：《地理学报》2019年第10期2062-2077,共16页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41761116);宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ17027)~~

摘　　要：可持续发展能力评价方法是识别人地协同规律、支撑科学决策的重要工具和热点需求。通过文献回顾与理论分析框架构建,耦合能值及[火用]方法,提出自组织能力指数(SO)、生态压力指数(EP)、可持续发展能力指数(SC)构成的,基于热力学理论的可持续发展能力分析模型,利用文献荟萃法筛选17个典型发达国家1985年状态值计算SO与EP阈值,划分了4个阶段。利用中美两国1985-2015年特征对比验证,结果显示:① 2005年以前中国属“低自组织能力、低生态压力”阶段,之后进入“低自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在低生态效率、规模扩张驱动特征;美国一直属“高自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在高生态效率驱动、经济与生态脱钩特征,与全球生态足迹网络和世界自然基金会等的研究结果一致,模型具有较好适应性和可靠性。②模型利用“获得[火用]量/输入能值量”表达经济社会生态效率、“经济社会[火用]损耗量/生态系统年产[火用])量”表达生态压力,连接了经济社会对生态基底的熵化路径,可识别区域所处可持续发展阶段、分析水平变化和驱动因素。③模型以人类与生态并重的视角,从深度上反映经济社会的生态效率、从广度上评价生态空间被占用比例,具有宏观规模与微观效率分析相结合的优势,是对经典方法的补充。Methods for the evaluation of sustainable development capability are important and highly sought after tools for identifying the synergistic relationship between humans and the environment and guiding scientific decision-making for the implementation of ecological and environmental protection measures. Compared to traditional methods such as ecological footprint, environmental sustainability index, and human development index, emergy analysis and exergy analysis result in smaller errors and are more objective. These two methods can directly convert materials and services into energy units, without evaluation indicators and weight settings, and do not require raw dimensionless data. Exploring the coupling of emergy analysis and exergy analysis can provide a new perspective on and method for the analysis of regional sustainable development capabilities. Based on a literature review, a theoretical analysis framework was constructed. This study proposes an emergy and exergy coupling model for the analysis of sustainable development capability based on a thermodynamic theory. This analytical model has three indices, namely, self-organizing capability index (SO), ecological pressure index (EP), and sustainable development capability index (SC). The emergy and exergy input and output values of 17 typical developed countries in 1985 were screened via meta-analysis to calculate the SO and EP thresholds of the model, based on which sustainable development capability was divided into four stages. The model was tested via a comparative analysis of the sustainable development capability of China and the USA in 1985-2015. The results show that China was in the low self-organizing capacity and low ecological pressure stage before 2005. After 2005, it entered the low self-organizing capability and high ecological pressure stage. It has had low eco-efficiency and scale expansion driving characteristics. The USA is always in the high self-organizing capacity and high ecological pressure stage, and is characterized by high ecologic

关 键 词：可持续发展能力 自组织能力 生态压力 能值 [火用] 耦合模型 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]