基于参数移植法的无资料地区洪水预报分析  

Study on flood forecasting in underground area based on parametric transplantation method

作　　者：赵芳[1] 华东 田质胜[1] 唐克银[1] 张晨[1] ZHAO Fang;HUA Dong;TIAN Zhi-sheng;TANG Ke-yin;ZHANG Chen(Shandong Provincial Institute of Water Resources Survey and Design,Jinan 250014,China;Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources of China,Beijing 100032,China;National Water Resources Monitoring Capacity Building Project Office,Beijing 100032,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省水利勘测设计院,济南250014 [2]水利部信息中心,北京100032 [3]国家水资源监控能力建设项目办公室,北京100032

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2019年第5期29-32,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：以浑河上游清原下水库流域为研究对象,探究了参数移植法在无资料地区洪水预报的适用情况。选取了清原下水库附近的南口前流域为建模区,构建了新安江模型,并选取流域内11场洪水资料,利用SCE-UA算法进行参数率定,最后再将参数移植到了研究区流域,结果显示模型预报精度达到乙级,说明参数移植法在无资料地区洪水预报的适用性。This paper takes the Qingyuanxia Reservoir watershed in the upper reaches of the Weihe River as the research object,and explores the application of the parameter transplant method in flood forecasting in non-data areas. The paper selects the Nankou Qianzi basin near the Qingyuanxia Reservoir as the modeling area,constructs the Xin'anjiang model,selects 11 flood data in the basin,uses the SCE-UA algorithm to determine the parameters,and finally transplants the parameters to the study area. In the basin,the result shows that the model prediction accuracy reaches Grade B,which proves the applicability of the parameter migration method in flood forecasting in data-free areas.

关 键 词：参数移植 无资料地区 洪水预报 新安江模型 SCE-UA算法 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]