“一带一路”沿线国家间劳动力转移的福利效应——基于ZMW理论模型的实证检验  

The Welfare Analysis for the Labor Mobility of the Countries Along “The Belt and Road”——Based on ZMW Model and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：杜薇 余向华[2] 姜慧 DU Wei;YU Xiang - hua;JIANG Hui

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]北京工商大学经济学院 [3]鲁东大学商学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2019年第5期124-135,共12页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：中国国家留学基金委2017年公派出国留学项目(项目编号:CSC NO.201706640065,项目负责人:杜薇);国家社会科学基金项目“基于多源大数据的京津冀产业协同发展模式及效果评价研究”(项目编号:19BJL082,项目负责人:杨道玲);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国服务业发展政策的演变及有效性协同性分析”(项目编号:17ZDA056,项目负责人:李朝鲜);北京市社会科学基金项目“人力资本优势对北京市共享式增长目标的促进效应与优化机理研究”(项目编号:14JGB030,项目负责人:余向华)

摘　　要：随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,沿线国家人才跨境转移愈发频繁,人才是“一带一路”建设的基础和关键支撑,人才资源的合理配置是沿线国家进行“一带一路”建设的重要问题之一。基于理论模型提出的研究假设,利用2003-2016年“一带一路”沿线49个国家的面板数据,验证区域间劳动力转移的理论机制,结果表明:高收入水平国家和中低收入水平国家劳动力转移路径具有明显差异,劳动力引入政策并不一定能提高本国福利,当两个国家收入水平相似时,高收入国家以拥有制定较低劳动力税的优势来吸引劳动力流入,而较低收入水平国家选择较高的准入壁垒对本地居民福利更有利;“一带一路”倡议实施以来,沿线国家经济发展水平明显提升,不同收入层次国家在人才流动方面的政策具有明显差异,这对优化“一带一路”沿线国家间要素流动的合作具有启发意义。With the implementation of the Belt and Road, the industrial transfer between inter - regional and international and the talent flow formed around this initiative will be further intensified. Based on the Zod-row, Mieszkowski, and Wilson (ZMW) Model, this study proposed research hypotheses and validated the theoretical mechanism of inter - regional labor transfer using panel data from 49 countries along the Belt and Road in 2003 -2016. Following different conclusions were drawn: there were different labor transfer routes among the high - income countries, the mid - income and low - income countries. Labor introduction policies might not improve domestic welfare. When the capital investment of the two regions were similar, if the initial per capita capital was more, the region then had the advantage of setting a lower labor tax to attract labor inflows, while the region with lower per capita capital chose higher barriers to entry, which was more favorable to the welfare of local residents. Since the implementation of the Belt and Road, the economies of the countries along the Belt and Road were improved significantly. Different countries in different income levels had obvious differences in the policy of talent flow. This difference further supported the research hypothesis proposed in the theoretical model of this study, and was instructive for optimizing the cooperation between the “Belt and Road” countries around the factor flows.

关 键 词：“一带一路”沿线国家 劳动力跨境流动 人力资本 收入分层 福利效应 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]