基于非参数面板计量模型的我国消费者消费行为特点研究  

Quantitative Research of Non-parametric Panel Model on the Consumption Behavior Characteristics of Chinese Consumers

作　　者：王俏[1] 聂力[1] Wang Qiao;Nie Li

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2019年第3期140-154,共15页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国碳市场成熟度、市场机制完善及环境监管政策研究”(14ZDA072)的资助

摘　　要：本文以2009年和2011年我国3036个家庭的面板数据作为研究样本,从边际消费倾向的分布特点以及不同种类商品间的消费结构两个角度考察我国消费者的消费行为特点,运用Evdokimov (2017)的非参数面板计量模型实证分析了我国消费者的消费行为特点。研究发现:边际消费倾向是双峰分布的,边际消费倾向的峰值在偏低收入阶层和偏高收入阶层;边际消费倾向比较高的中低收入阶层主要关注生活消费,边际消费倾向比较高的中高收入阶层也主要关注生活消费,而高收入阶层更关注住房以及医疗保健消费。本文认为深化居民收入制度改革,提升中高收入群体的比例,强化日用品供应、房地产租赁以及医疗保健市场的供给侧改革,构建多层次的保障体系,增强消费预期,有利于我国总消费需求的提高。This paper analyzes the consumption behaviors Characteristics of Chinese consumers by non-parametric estimation.The consumption behaviors Characteristics include the distribution of marginal propensity to consume and consumption structure of different commodities.Applying the data of 3036 families on 2009 and 2011 from CHNS, we empirically prove that marginal propensity to consumption in China has the bi-modal distribution and estimate the willingness to consume by non-parametric panel estimation method in Evdokimov(2017).The estimation results show that people with income below and above middle class all have higher marginal propensity to consume.The willingness to consume of people with income above or below middle class is higher in living consumption.And the willingness to consume of people with high income is higher in real estate consumption and medicare consumption.Therefore, increasing the number of people with higher income, promoting the supply reform on living, real estate and medicare market and constructing an effective welfare system will improve the consumption demand of Chinese consumers.

关 键 词：边际消费倾向 消费意愿 非参数估计 消费行为 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]