耕地资源变化与社会发展的动态响应分析——以湖南省为例  

Dynamic Response Analysis of Cultivated Land Resources Change and Social Development——Taking Hunan Province as an Example

作　　者：罗铁军 李心怡 冯琦 Luo Teijun;Li Xinyi;Feng Qi(Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Bureau of Hunan Province Changsha,Hunan 410001;China University of Geosciences,Wuhan Hubei 430074)

机构地区：[1]湖南省土地综合整治局,湖南长沙410001 [2]中国地质大学,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《国土资源导刊》2019年第3期1-6,共6页Land & Resources Herald

摘　　要：为分析耕地变化与社会经济发展的动态关系,促进城镇化与农业的协调发展,本文基于湖南省2009-2017年相关数据,建立向量自回归模型,计算两者的互馈关系。结果表明:耕地变化与社会发展之间动态响应呈现差异性,表现为方向上的正负转换和趋势上的强弱起伏;耕地变化对社会经济发展的贡献度远远高于经济社会发展对耕地变化的贡献度。In order to analyze the dynamic relationship between cultivated land change and social economic development and promote the coordinated development of urbanization and agriculture,this paper establishes a vector autoregressive model based on the relevant data of Hunan Province from 2009 to 2017,and calculates the mutual relationship between the two.The results show that the dynamic response between cultivated land change and social development is different,which is manifested as positive and negative change in direction and strength and weakness in the trend;the contribution of cultivated land change to social and economic development is much higher than that of social development to cultivated land change.

关 键 词：耕地资源 社会发展 向量自回归模型 湖南省 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]