“疯人战略”与特朗普政府的对朝政策  

“Madman Strategy” and the Trump Administration’s North Korean Policy

作　　者：袁莎 Yuan Sha(Department for American Studies,China Institute of International Studies)

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院美国所

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2019年第4期3-18,101,共17页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

摘　　要：“疯人战略”是一种基于“非理性的理性”的强制外交战略,决策者通过给自己建立一种“疯人”形象,让对方害怕招致极端报复而做出妥协。2017年朝核危机中,特朗普总统的“疯人战略”引发广泛关注。本文分析“疯人战略”的逻辑、效果及影响,并以特朗普政府对朝政策为例,表明“疯人战略”可能有助于增强强制外交的效果,但是仍存在较大的局限和风险。“Madman Strategy”refers to a strategy of coercive diplomacy based on the“rationality of irrationality”.Specifically,a decision maker tries to force the other side to compromise for fear of extremist retaliations by building an image of“madman”for oneself.Donald Trump's“madman strategy”during the 2017 North Korean nuclear crisis has drawn wide attention.The rapprochement between the United States and North Korea in 2018 led some to believe Trump's“madman strategy”has achieved notable results in forcing North Korea to stall its nuclear and missile tests.While others are more cautious or critical,dismissing this strategy's effectiveness in facilitating denuclearization on the Korean peninsula,and worrying about heightened risks of pushing the region to the brink of nuclear conflicts.This article aims at delving into the logic,effectiveness and implications of the“madman strategy”.By taking Trump's policy on North Korea as an example,this article argues that the“madman strategy”might have some effectiveness in strengthening coercive diplomacy,but also harbors major limitations and risks.

关 键 词：特朗普 疯人战略 强制外交 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]