旅游业集聚与城镇化的非线性效应——基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析  

The Nonlinear Effects of Tourism Agglomeration on Urbanization: An Empirical Analysis with Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

作　　者：徐立娣[1] 赵磊[2] XU Lidi;ZHAO Lei(Department of Management,Zhejang Changzheng Vocational and Technological College,Hangzhou 310023;School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310014,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江长征职业技术学院管理学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2019年第4期25-32,共8页Tourism Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14CGL023);浙江省社会科学联合会研究课题(2018B45);浙江省哲学社会科学规划研究课题(19NDJC405YBM)

摘　　要：文章基于旅游业集聚影响城镇化的理论机制的阐述,利用中国30个省级单元1999—2013年面板数据,以旅游业集聚水平作为转换变量,采用面板平滑转换回归模型,对旅游业集聚与城镇化之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:首先,旅游业集聚对城镇化存在显著正向影响;其次,以旅游业集聚作为转换变量,旅游业集聚的城镇化效应存在显著的门槛特征;最后,旅游业集聚与旅游业集聚的城镇化效应之间显著正相关,在旅游业集聚的初始阶段,旅游业集聚的城镇化效应处于低机制,当旅游业集聚跨越门槛值后,旅游业集聚的城镇化效应则缓慢平滑地转换为高机制,并且旅游业集聚水平的提升会强化其对城镇化正向影响的边际效应。The article first explains the theoretical mechanism of tourism agglomeration affecting urbanization,uses panel data of 30 provincial units in China from 1999 to 2013,takes the level of tourism agglomeration as the transformation variable,and adopts panel smoothing transition regression(PSTR)model to test the nonlinear relationship between tourism agglomeration and urbanization.Empirical results indicate that:firstly,tourism agglomeration has a significant positive impact on urbanization;secondly,taking tourism agglomeration as a transformation variable,the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration has a significant threshold feature;finally,there is a significant positive correlation between tourism agglomeration and the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration.At the initial stage of tourism agglomeration,the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration is in low regime.When tourism agglomeration overtakes the threshold,the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration is slow and smooth transition to a high regime.In addition,the increase in the level of tourism agglomeration will strengthen the marginal urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration.The conclusion of this paper,at the initial stage of tourism agglomeration,the agglomeration produced by the attraction of tourism product that attributes to satisfy the novelty-seeking mentality of tourist market has become the main factor,but this mechanism will show signs of weakening along with the aesthetic fatigue of tourist market.In other words,the speed of innovative supply of tourism products lags behind the speed of the change of market demand of tourist market.As a result,the unbalanced supply and demand of tourism industry will further hinder the intensity of tourism agglomeration,then making the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration in a low-impact stage.However,with the dynamic evolution of tourism agglomeration,especially the tourism agglomeration mode driven by technological innovation of tourism products,it provides an important endoge

关 键 词：旅游业集聚 城镇化 非线性 面板平滑转换回归模型 

分 类 号：F590.3[经济管理—旅游管理]