适应供给侧结构性改革的中长期负荷预测拓展索洛模型研究  

Extended Solow regression model for mid/long-term load forecasting adapted to supply-side structural reform

作　　者：王凌谊 王志敏 钱纹 彭虹桥 顾洁[2] 朱玥 时亚军 WANG Lingyi;WANG Zhimin;QIAN Wen;PENG Hongqiao;GU Jie;ZHU Yue;SHI Yajun(Yunnan Power Grid Planning and Research Center,Kunming 650011,China;Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center,School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]云南电网规划研究中心,云南昆明650011 [2]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,大数据工程技术研究中心,上海200240

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2019年第18期49-59,共11页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(973计划)(2016YFB0900101)~~

摘　　要：随着供给侧结构性改革的深入,电力需求的演变规律变得更难捕捉。传统的中长期负荷预测模型通常未考虑供给侧结构性改革因素,难以满足新形势下中长期负荷预测精度的要求。基于此,提出了一种适应供给侧结构性改革的中长期负荷拓展索洛预测模型(Supply-Side Reform-Extended Solow Regression Model,SSR-ESRM)。首先,通过对供给侧结构性改革内涵的解读,从规模、结构及效率三种效应出发,构建了量化指标体系。其次,在基本索洛模型的结构中,引入供给侧结构性改革因素对模型进行拓展,建立SSR-ESRM实现中长期负荷点预测。为反映供给侧结构性改革的不确定性,建立了系统动力学模型生成多种经济发展场景,进一步实现中长期负荷外推预测。算例分析表明,考虑供给侧结构性改革因素的SSR-ESRM预测精度较高,且对场景切换的灵敏度适中,有利于电网规划的灵活性,能够为实现电网规划提供有益的参考。As the supply-side reform gets further development,the evolution of electricity demand has become less predictable.Traditional mid/long-term load forecasting models often overlook the supply-side reform factors,making it difficult to meet the requirements on the forecasting accuracy of mid/long-term load under new situation.With the aforementioned background and defect,this paper proposes a novel mid/long-term load forecasting model,named Supply-Side Reform-Extend Solow Regression Model(SSR-ESRM),to adapt to the implementation of the policy.Firstly,the quantitative indicators from scale,structure and efficiency perspective based on the connotation of the structural supply-side reform are constructed.Next,the supply-side reform indicators are introduced into the basic Solow model,extended into SSR-ESRM as underlying point forecast models.Meanwhile,to reflect the uncertainties of this policy,several economic scenarios based on system dynamics model and multiple ex-ante load forecasts are generated.It is shown that SSR-ESRM has higher forecasting accuracy and moderate sensitivity to scenario switching,which can facilitate the flexibility of power system planning and provide useful reference for realizing power grid planning.

关 键 词：供给侧结构性改革 指标体系 拓展索洛模型 系统动力学 中长期负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]