城乡融合发展背景下上海市农村宅基地利用变化仿真与模拟  

Simulation of Rural Residential Land Use Change in Shanghai City Under the Urban-Rural Integrated Development

作　　者：杨春梅 徐小峰 齐琪[1] 林书达 张也 胡银根 YANG Chunmei;XU Xiaofeng;QI Qi;LIN Shuda;ZHANG Ye;HU Yingen(College of Public Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Shanghai Institute of Geological Survey,Shanghai 200072,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023 [3]上海市地质调查研究院,上海200072

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2019年第9期56-65,共10页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（41671173,41271191）;上海市地质调查研究院课题（2017(O)-028(F)-01）;中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助（140419011）

摘　　要：研究目的:以上海市为例,从系统的角度分析城乡融合发展背景下,农村宅基地利用变化影响机理与趋势。研究方法:运用系统动力学方法建立上海市宅基地利用SD模型,模拟不同情景下2035年上海市宅基地利用状况。研究结果:(1)上海市宅基地利用变化SD模型是有效的;(2)现有发展趋势下,到规划末期上海市常住人口、建设用地规模会超过规划目标,宅基地总量将会减少约63%,宅基地利用率提高至96%左右;(3)对宅基地面积的影响:土地利用模式改变>人口变化>经济发展速度,对宅基地利用率的影响:经济发展速度>人口变化>土地利用模式。研究结论:(1)协调好人口增长与土地利用模式调整关系,严控土地用途转变,有助于实现规划目标;(2)利用经济优势多途径盘活乡村低效资源资产,保障农户宅基地权益。Taking Shanghai City as an example,the purpose of this study is to analyze the mechanism and trend of rural residential land use change against the backdrop of urban-rural integrated development from the systematic perspective.System dynamics method was employed to build SD model of rural residential land use in Shanghai City and simulate the situation of residential land use in 2035 under different scenarios.The results indicate that:1)the model is valid;2)under the current development trend,by 2035,the permanent population and construction land in Shanghai City will exceed the planning target,the total amount of residential land will reduce by 63%,and utilization rate of residential land will rise up to 96%;3)the impact on the scale of residential land:land use pattern change>population change>economic development speed,the impact on the utilization rate of residential land:economic development speed>population change>land use pattern.In conclusion,the relationship between population growth and land use pattern adjustment should be well coordinated,and the strict land use change control is conducive to achieving planning objectives.The economic advantages should be well utilized to reuse inefficient resources and assets in the rural areas in different means,and the farmers’residential land rights should be protected.

关 键 词：土地管理 宅基地 系统动力学 城乡融合 上海市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]