中国北方春季沙尘天气气候趋势的多因子客观预测  

Multi-factor prediction of spring dust weather frequency in northern China

作　　者：杨明珠[1] 竺夏英[1] 艾婉秀[1] 宋文玲[1] YANG Mingzhu;ZHU Xiaying;AI Wanxiu;SONG Wenling(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心

出　　处：《科技导报》2019年第20期19-29,共11页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC1501706）;2016年荒漠化监测专项

摘　　要：分析了中国北方春季沙尘天气日数的时间演变特征及不同阶段大气环流的分布特征,探寻前期关键区海表温度和海冰密集度等外强迫信号,并研究了敏感沙源区夏季降水对次年春季中国北方沙尘天气趋势的影响。在此基础上,建立了春季沙尘气候趋势多因子客观预测模型,从近5年在国家气候中心的实际应用看,对华北区的预测效果最好。经过改善,对西北区的预测技巧也有明显的提高。The evolution characteristics of the spring sand-dust weather frequency(SDWF) in northern China and its associated atmospheric circulations are analyzed.The signals for the prediction of the SDWF are explored by using the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration in the previous autumn as the external forcing factors.Besides,the influence of the rainfall over the dust-storm source regions in the previous summer is also studied.A multi-factor prediction model for the SDWF in northern China is established and applied in the operational forecasting in the National Climate Center of China.The results show that this model performs best for North China and fairly well for Northwest China by involving the precipitation in the previous autumn.

关 键 词：沙尘天气 气候趋势 多因子预测模型 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]