暴雨中尺度模式的发展历程和研究进展  

Important advances in the meso-scale numerical heavy rainfall prediction model in China

作　　者：程锐 徐幼平[2,4] 崔春光[3] 黄静 刘娟[4] 金宝刚 顾春利 孙溦 CHENG Rui;XU Youping;CUI Chunguang;HUANG Jing;LIU Juan;JIN Baogang;GU Chunli;SUN Wei(State Key Laboratory of Geo-Information Engineering,Xi’an 710054;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administrator,Wuhan 430074;Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]地理信息工程国家重点实验室,西安710054 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京100029 [3]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,430205 [4]北京应用气象研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2019年第5期472-482,共11页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507200,2017YFA0604000);国家自然科学基金(91637211,61572058);国家自然科学基金项目(41620104009,91637211,41975058);科技部国际合作重点项目(2016YEE0109400);科技部重点研发专项项目(2018YFC1507202)

摘　　要：短期数值天气预报模式的发展,由于具备了对动力辐合、湿物理及边界层等过程和实际地形的刻画能力,在分辨率提高到几十公里尺度时,可以对暴雨进行数值预报。经过近50 a的发展,暴雨中尺度模式经历了静力平衡到非静力平衡、粗分辨率到高分辨率、简单物理过程到细致物理过程、云雨隐式预报到显式预报、简单初始化到复杂同化等的转变。本文从暴雨中尺度模式框架、物理过程和初始化方法三个方面,回顾了国内外主要暴雨中尺度模式的发展历程和重要进展,同时指出了未来模式可能的发展趋势并给予了分析讨论。The short-range numerical weather prediction model has been developed as a tool to forecast the torrential rainfall since it has the capability to describe the dynamic convergence,fundamental physics and the real topography reasonably when the horizontal resolution is increased to a few tens of kilometers.The nearly fifty years of development in the meso-scale numerical prediction model for heavy rainfall has witnessed great changes in the dynamical core from hydrostatic to non-hydrostatic,the resolution from coarse to fine,the physical processes from simple to comprehensive,cloud and precipitation forecast from implicit to explicit and initialization from simple interpolation to complicated assimilation.In this paper,we mainly focus on dynamical frames,physical packages and initialization techniques of the meso-scale numerical heavy rainfall prediction model to analyze its important advances at home and abroad.Some future directions of the model development are also suggested.The review will be helpful to understand the current status and development trend of meso-scale model as an important tool to study and forecast heavy rainfall.

关 键 词：暴雨 中尺度模式 动力框架 物理参数化 初始化 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]