宁夏水资源安全综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation of urban water resources security in Ningxia autonomous region

作　　者：唐莲[1,2,3] 刘子西 齐娅荣 TANG Lian;LIU Zi-xi;QI Ya-rong(School of Civil&Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Efficient Utilization of Modem Agriculture Water Resources in Arid Areas,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Research Team of Ministry of Education for"Efficient Utilization of Modem Agriculture Water Resources in Arid Areas",Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,银川750021 [2]宁夏大学旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心,银川750021 [3]宁夏大学旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部创新团队,银川750021

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2019年第5期1810-1816,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：宁夏2018科技重点研发计划项目(2018BEG03008);宁夏高等学校一流学科项目(NXYLXK2017A03);宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ17032);国家自然科学基金项目(51269022)

摘　　要：评价区域水资源安全的发展趋势、认识自然及社会经济因素的不同驱动作用,是水资源安全评价的重要目标。根据水资源安全评价的内涵,选择19个指标,构建区域水资源安全评价指标体系并建立基于熵权的模糊物元模型,对宁夏连续8年的水资源安全变化趋势进行了评价,并尝试从社会经济驱动角度出发,分析社会经济调控措施对水资源安全发展趋势的影响。结果表明:基于熵权的模糊物元水资源安全综合评价可减少评价的主观性,评价结果较客观;该区域的水资源安全呈现良性发展的趋势,其变化基本与节水型社会建设试点等水资源安全措施效果同步;指标层分析结果表明,社会及经济调控效率涵盖的指标较多、权重较大、变化明显,是区域的水资源安全趋势好转的主要驱动因素。The given paper intends to make a security evaluation for the development trend of the regional water resources security by taking the water resources security status-in-situ of Ningxia as a case study sample. In this paper,we have chosen 19 indicators to build up the evaluation index system for the regional water resources security in Ningxia Autonomous Region. And,then,we have established a fuzzy matter-element model of the water resources security based on the entropy weight in accordance with the special features of the water resources in the arid areas in recognizing the different thrust force of the natural and socio-economic factors in connotation of the water resources security evaluation so as to improve the water resources constantly. And,for the above reasons,we have made an analysis and evaluation of the developmental trend of the water resources security in the region for 8 consecutive years and the socio-economic control measures from the perspective of the socio-economic driving mortability in the paper. The results show that the application of the fuzzy matter-element model based on the entropy weight to the comprehensive evaluation of the water resources security in the above mentioned region can reduce the subjectivity of the evaluation and determine the difference or up between the evaluation samples and the evaluation criteria,so as to rate the results we have gained objectively. The trend of the water resources security in this region as we have made clear shows a benign development trend,with its changes being basically related to the pilot effect of water-saving structure society. The results of the indexical level analysis show that water-saving efficiency,the economic development level,the sewage treatment and reuse ratio serve as the chief factors affecting the regional water resources security,among which the social and economic control efficiency covers more indicators and occupies a greater proportion. And,since in the areas water resources are scarce,the proportion of the farmland ir

关 键 词：环境工程学 水资源安全 模糊物元 熵权 评价 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]