需求不确定下相关产品的柔性设备与延迟策略选择  

Selection of Flexible Equipment and Delay Strategy for Related Products under Demand Uncertainty

作　　者：燕夏敏[1] 林军[1] 崔文田[1] 钱艳俊[2] Yan Xiamin;Lin Jun;Cui Wentian;Qian Yanjun(School of Management,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [2]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710072

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第20期173-177,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目（71371149）;陕西省自然科学基础研究计划（2015JM7379)

摘　　要：面对需求不确定性,柔性设备可以根据需求的变化为多种产品调配产能,但相比专用设备成本较大且有限产能无法满足所有需求;延迟策略可以通过收集信息准确预测需求提供匹配的产能,但会推迟产品的市场投放时间、缩短销售周期。文章研究了需求不确定下多品种相关产品的柔性设备与延迟策略选择问题,给出相关系数与不确定性的临界值指导决策。结果表明:相关系数较小且不确定性较大,或者相关系数较大且不确定性中等时,企业选择柔性设备;相关系数较小且不确定性中等,或者相关系数较大且不确定性较大时,企业选择延迟策略;不确定性较小时,企业无措施。In the face of demand uncertainty, flexible equipment can adjust the capacity for a variety of products according to the change of demand, but more costly than special equipment and limited capacity cannot meet all demands;the delay strategy can accurately forecast demand by collecting information to provide matching capacity, but it will postpone the product’s market launch time and shorten the sales cycle. This paper studies the selection of flexible equipment and delay strategy for a variety of related products with uncertain demand, presenting the critical value of correlation coefficient and uncertainty to guide decision-making. The research shows that when the correlation coefficient is small and uncertainty is large, or when the correlation coefficient is large and uncertainty is medium, the enterprise chooses the flexible equipment;when the correlation coefficient is small and uncertainty is medium, or when the correlation coefficient is large and uncertainty is large, the enterprise chooses delay strategy;when uncertainty is small, the enterprise has no measures.

关 键 词：不确定性 相关产品 产能投资 柔性设备 延迟策略 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]